Trump Faces Array of 'Bad Options' on Iran as Diplomacy Stalls

Optimism surrounding peace proposals aimed at reaching a deal between Iran and the US quickly evaporated this week as the two sides appeared to drift further apart, each dug in and insisting the other must make concessions to resume negotiations.

US President Donald Trump declared the already fragile ceasefire with Iran, in effect since April 8, is now on “life support,” and members of his administration are increasingly hinting that the US may resume hostilities.

However, analysts say that despite Trump's bluster on Truth Social – his preferred media channel – the US president is now trapped between escalation and concession, as the region sinks deeper into a gray zone of neither war nor peace.

Resuming hostilities remains a possibility, but the war is unpopular with the American public and could weigh heavily on the Republican Party ahead of crucial midterm elections. Yet extricating himself from the conflict and reaching a deal could require Trump to concede to Tehran – on its nuclear program or on Iran's role at the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil chokepoint through which about one-fifth of global energy exports transit.

“The White House is facing a set of bad options,” said Allison Minor, a former US State Department and National Security Council official, now a director at the Atlantic Council's Middle East Integration Project.

Tehran wants an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon; it wants the first phase of talks to focus on ending hostilities before moving to a second step to discuss its nuclear program and support for proxy groups. Iran rejects dismantling its nuclear program, wants sanctions lifted, and recognition of its influence over the key waterway. Trump labeled Iran's latest proposal – with these demands – as “garbage.”

So what options does Trump have?

On Sunday, the US president hinted that more military moves might be needed, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested the war is not over. Iran's enriched uranium remains in the country – though possibly buried under rubble after US and Israeli bombings last June. Iran's enrichment facilities have not been dismantled. And Tehran still retains its proxy network and ballistic missile arsenal, Netanyahu said in a CBS interview. “There is still work to be done,” Trump said.

But while the US and Israel could certainly resume attacks on Iran, the prospect of an endless conflict could become a major political liability for Trump, according to Ian Lesser, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. He noted that Iran's leadership has proven more resilient and enduring – with a higher tolerance for material and economic damage – than the US administration ever anticipated.

Lesser added that a return to fighting would affect the US ability to respond to threats elsewhere, including the Indo-Pacific region, amid growing concerns about US ammunition stockpiles being depleted after five weeks of bombing Iran. A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warned that the conflict has reduced Washington's readiness for other potential confrontations, especially with China.

Iran has shown what happens if the US and Israel resume bombing the country, with Gulf allies bearing heavy consequences. After Trump announced the “Freedom Project” – an initiative to force open the narrow waterway to free trapped ships – Iran retaliated with a barrage of missiles and drones targeting the United Arab Emirates (UAE). US officials deemed those attacks insufficient to breach the fragile ceasefire reached in early April – a signal that the Trump administration lacks appetite for resuming hostilities, observers say. Instead, the US president suspended the Hormuz initiative within 24 hours, though the naval blockade of ships linked to Iran seeking to transit the strait remains in place.

Domestic pressure is also mounting. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday showed that two-thirds of surveyed Americans believe Trump has not clearly explained why the US is waging this war. And the same proportion is feeling financial strain from the war as gasoline, oil, and fertilizer prices soar. Trump's approval rating stands at 36%, far below last year's 47%, ahead of November midterm elections that could determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress.

Minor of the Atlantic Council said that while the US president often appears relatively impervious to Washington public opinion, he cares about market movements, energy prices, and inflation, and “understands the status quo cannot be defended indefinitely.” She added: “He will find a creative framework to present some deal as a victory, even if he has to make concessions” to Iran.

Minor assessed that Trump is unlikely to persuade Iran both to limit its nuclear program and relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz. “He'll be forced to prioritize one over the other, and he will prioritize the nuclear deal,” Minor said.

Meanwhile, Iran's negotiating stance has hardened. According to Dennis Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, Iran's ceasefire proposals and defiant posture reflect a leadership that emerged from the conflict confident it holds the upper hand and is unlikely to bow to US pressure.

From Tehran's perspective, the war and economic pressure campaign failed to force strategic concessions. Conversely, Citrinowicz argued, Iran seems to view the crisis as an opportunity to expand influence and redefine its deterrence vis-à-vis Washington. However, Iran's confidence masks significant vulnerabilities, including mounting economic strain and damage to parts of its military infrastructure.

“Iran's response leaves Trump with very few viable options, and all from bad to worse: either accept politically impossible terms in Washington, or escalate further in ways that could trigger a broader regional confrontation without actually shifting Tehran's core stance,” he wrote on X.