Trump Heads to Xi Talks as Experts Say US 'Desperate for a Win'

U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday for two days of talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, his first visit to China since 2017, as bilateral trade relations hover at multi-decade lows.

Experts say the timing favors China. Professor Wei Liang of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies noted: “This is the best time for Xi Jinping to negotiate because the U.S. is busy with wars. At home, Trump’s approval ratings are low and he needs a win, especially with the midterm elections approaching in November.”

A late-month Reuters/Ipsos poll showed only 34% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance, down from 36% in mid-April and well below the 47% when he took office in January 2025.

The U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, along with retaliatory strikes in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for oil and gas shipments—has sent energy prices soaring. On Monday, international benchmark Brent crude rose 3% from Friday’s close to $104 per barrel after Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran was “on its last legs.” The average U.S. gas price hit $4.48 per gallon, with California at $6.10, Washington $5.72, and Hawaii $5.60.

Labor Department data Tuesday showed consumer inflation rose to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by the Iran conflict pushing energy costs higher.

Trade has suffered sharply since Trump returned to the White House last year and imposed record tariffs—at one point reaching 145% on Chinese goods. According to Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), U.S. imports from China have fallen more than 25%, while exports to China have dropped by a similar margin. He estimates that without the trade war, U.S. exports to China in 2025 would have been nearly 60% higher—worth about $90 billion per year.

In response, Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs and halted rare earth exports—a material essential for industries from cars to smartphones—where China holds a near-monopoly. While tensions have eased somewhat, relations have not returned to normal.

Notably, while Chinese exports to the U.S. fell 4% in 2025 and now make up only 9% of total U.S. imports, imports from other countries rose 9%. Businesses have shifted supply chains to Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan. China posted a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion last year, making up for the U.S. shortfall by boosting trade with other regions.

“China is no longer dependent on the U.S.,” said Dexter Tiff Roberts, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Center.

Talks in October on the sidelines of APEC in South Korea yielded no concrete results. “This is an important trip. It’s very chaotic right now and both sides have lost hope about what they can do bilaterally,” professor Wei Liang said.

Experts believe China holds the stronger hand in negotiations. Beijing has built natural gas pipelines through Central Asia to ensure energy security, insulating itself from conflicts in Iran or elsewhere. Domestically, Xi Jinping faces no political pressure comparable to Trump’s.

“Xi has no domestic pressure, but Trump will be eager to get some sort of deal to present to the public. He has a sense of urgency,” Liang added.

China wants regular access to high-tech chips or at least chip-making tools to develop its own industry. It is also seeking concessions on Taiwan. In return, the U.S. may demand China buy major commodities like soybeans, Boeing aircraft, and energy (coal and natural gas).

Beyond trade, Washington wants Beijing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz by leveraging its ally Iran. “It’s an incredible move. They’re essentially inviting China to join a naval operation,” said Roberts of the Atlantic Council.

“Much of what the U.S. is trying to achieve now is to fix the damage they themselves created,” Roberts added. “China is aware of this and even surprised by its own luck. They can sit back and let the U.S. harm its own global standing.”