Havana residents fear US military attack after criminal charges target Raúl Castro
Ruaridh Nicoll
Cubans are both outraged by US criminal charges against former President Raúl Castro and increasingly view the possibility of military attacks as serious, as tensions escalate. Neighbors of senior officials in Havana face unprecedented fear. The indictment follows weeks of surveillance aircraft, intelligence reports, and heightened US military activity in the Caribbean.
A new question is being asked in Havana as residents absorb news that the United States has filed criminal charges against former Cuban President Raúl Castro, 94: who is your neighbor? If someone happens to live near a high-ranking official in the Cuban government or armed forces, others often click their tongues in concern.
For the first time, US military attacks on the island are being considered a serious possibility. Outrage is also directed at Washington from a segment of the population that had previously lost faith in their own government. “How dare they?” said a teacher in Havana, considering joining a protest march against the indictment on Friday morning. “I’ve never gone to one of those, but this is despicable. Who are they to threaten us like this?”
Thirty years ago, Cuban fighter jets shot down two unarmed Cessnas from the exile group Brothers to the Rescue in international airspace north of Havana, killing four people. At the time, it was seen not only as an act of brutality but also a strategic mistake. Few recall that it came as no surprise. Former rebel leader Eloy Gutiérrez Menoyo once said, “Everyone here knew something would happen to those planes.” Brothers to the Rescue was founded to search for Cuban refugees, but by the mid-1990s, the group shifted to provocation by flying low over Cuba and dropping leaflets.
Fidel Castro once said the US would never tolerate that over its own capital. Although Cuba appealed, the US continued to allow the flights until the Cuban leader lost patience. Former Cuban ambassador to Brussels, Carlos Alzugaray, said, “Fidel tried to find a diplomatic solution, sending many messages to Bill Clinton that ‘You must stop this, we cannot tolerate it.’” However, the pressure the Cuban government faced then is nothing compared to now.
Wednesday’s indictment followed weeks of surveillance aircraft circling the island, dubious intelligence reports suggesting Cuba possesses drones and therefore threatens the US, the CIA director landing in Havana to demand Cuba stop its closeness to Russia and China, and the Nimitz carrier strike group entering the Caribbean Sea.
In a speech directed at the Cuban people, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American, said, “You, who call this island home, are experiencing unimaginable hardship. Today I want to tell you about what the US offers to help you not only relieve the current crisis but also build a better future.” He blamed the Cuban government for a 22-hour blackout despite a four-month oil blockade and nearly 70 years of US embargo. The speech was deemed skillful and knowledgeable but also showed Washington’s effort to make Cuba dependent.
US sanctions have been effective in pushing non-US businesses out of Cuba. On Thursday, World2Fly, a Spanish charter airline, stopped flying to the island. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated he wants to “liberate” Cuba for his Cuban-American friends in Miami. Concerns about the US turning Cuba into a protectorate have not diminished after Bloomberg reported that Sherritt, a Canadian nickel mining company, is negotiating to transfer a controlling stake to Ray Washburne, a former Trump adviser.
“I think this is a pretty good introductory lesson in the blatant corruption that will accompany any US control over Cuba,” a European businessman working in Cuba commented. It was excessive US control that led to the Cuban revolution in the first place.
Perhaps the most unavoidable part of the story is that one of the Cuban MiG pilots allegedly involved in the shootdown came to the US in 2024, amid a migration wave that has cost Cuba 20% of its population since 2021. Luis González-Pardo Rodríguez, who faced immigration fraud charges, was indicted alongside Raúl Castro on Wednesday. Manuel Barcia, a Cuban who is now vice-chancellor of the University of Bath, said, “The indictments should have happened—not in the US, but in a post-Castro Cuba. Whether the US will try to kidnap Castro as it did with Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela remains to be seen.” Former ambassador Carlos Alzugaray asked, “How far are they going to go? Would they really come and kidnap a 94-year-old man?”
