Lavrov Visits Tehran: Russia Backs Iran, but Does Moscow Also Gain From the US-Iran Crisis?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Tehran on Monday, meeting his counterpart Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian and pledging Moscow's support for Iran. The following day, Araghchi wrote on X that Iran and Russia had never cooperated as closely as they do now.

Yet Russia's position is anything but simple. The war against Iran launched by the United States and Israel on February 28 has driven oil prices higher, handing Moscow an unexpected windfall. Washington has also eased sanctions on Russian energy to bring down fuel costs — an issue U.S. voters have complained about bitterly ahead of next year's midterm elections.

So how close are Moscow and Tehran, and does Russia really want the US-Iran crisis to end?

Why did Lavrov go to Tehran now?

To shore up a wartime partnership and shape what comes next. Nader Hashemi, an associate professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University, told Al Jazeera that with both countries at war, Lavrov's main motive is to "consolidate" this alliance and advance each side's war aims: Russia against Ukraine, Iran against the United States.

According to Hashemi, the most important reason is that the US-Israeli offensive has fractured the regional order in the Middle East, and Moscow wants a voice in shaping the replacement order. "I think there's a longer-term agenda here," he said.

How close are Russia and Iran?

The two countries have a strategic partnership, but their treaty stops short of a military alliance. President Vladimir Putin and Pezeshkian signed a 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty in Moscow in January 2025. It took effect in October that year, but unlike Russia's agreement with North Korea, it contains no mutual defense clause.

Ties deepened after Russia launched its full-scale military campaign in Ukraine in 2022, when Iran shared Shahed drone technology that helped Russia produce its own version. In 2024, Washington accused Tehran of also sending ballistic missiles to Russia.

In Tehran, Lavrov said Russian experts who had left Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant — a facility heavily damaged in US airstrikes — would gradually return.

Other countries are aware of how tightly the two are bound. On Sunday, Lavrov was in Bahrain for a strategic dialogue between Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council; members asked Moscow to use its influence with Tehran to push "serious dialogue" and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the strategic waterway Iran effectively closed shortly after the fighting erupted earlier this year.

Is Russia helping Iran in its war with the US?

Not openly. Russia's Foreign Ministry has condemned what it calls the "unlawful act of aggression" by the United States and Israel, but Moscow has not intervened militarily. U.S. media, citing intelligence reports, say Russia and China have supplied Iran with satellite imagery and weapons components. President Donald Trump has dismissed those reports.

What does Russia gain from the US-Iran war?

A great deal. After Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — a route that in peacetime carries one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies — Brent crude rose from around $72 a barrel to as high as $120 in March and April. On Tuesday, Brent, the global benchmark, traded above $109 a barrel.

By April, revenue from Russia's main oil tax had nearly doubled to about $9 billion, according to Reuters calculations, as buyers unable to source from the Gulf turned elsewhere. Since March, the U.S. Treasury has issued waivers allowing the sale of Russian oil already loaded onto tankers. This month, it exempted Russian diesel from sanctions until April 2027.

On Friday, Trump suspended newly passed sanctions targeting Russia and buyers of its oil and gas, a move that infuriated members of his own Republican Party who backed the sanctions bill. On Sunday, he said he did not want to "foolishly push Russia away from the negotiating table" on Ukraine.

John Lough, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that the Kremlin is seizing the chance to reconcile Russian and U.S. interests on Ukraine, seeking to stop Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. He said this has strained Trump's relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, suiting Moscow's aim of setting U.S. policy against Europe's on Ukraine.

So does Russia really want the US-Iran war to end?

For now, Russia appears to have ample reason to want Washington-Tehran tensions to continue, because it is "benefiting from high oil prices and from the diesel shortage that has forced Trump to lift sanctions, allowing Russia to supply diesel to the U.S. market," according to Lough.

However, Nikita Smagin, an analyst of Russia's role in the Middle East, told Al Jazeera on Monday that while Russia certainly has local interests in the conflict continuing, overall it probably does not want to see it escalate because the consequences could be unpredictable.

Could Russia be an effective mediator in the US-Iran war?

Moscow talks to all parties in the conflict, which Hashemi says gives Russia an edge over Washington. Much of the region has been affected as Iran struck U.S. military bases and energy infrastructure in countries hosting American forces, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.

According to Hashemi, Russia is "perfectly positioned to shape a new Middle East regional order in the future" as "a major power with direct diplomatic relations with all parties" in the region, while "the United States cannot make that claim because it has no relations with Iran."

Putin has acted as a channel to Washington, saying he relayed Iran's views on ending the conflict to Trump in a call on October 9. But Hashemi does not believe Trump is relying on Putin to help end the Iran war. In his view, Trump's Iran policy is shaped first by "his own personal traits" and then by relations with Israel, reflected in close advisers such as Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Still, with Trump "getting bogged down," Hashemi says "there are intense discussions between Russia and the United States." These could culminate in a potential trilateral summit. Last month, the Kremlin said Putin and Trump had discussed meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping to talk about the Ukraine war at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November, but the White House has not confirmed whether Trump will attend.

If a Ukraine meeting takes place, Hashemi believes "the Iran war will also be on the agenda," as Trump looks to China and Russia "to see whether there is room to help him negotiate an end to the war."

What next?

On Monday, Lavrov said Moscow expects Pezeshkian to attend the Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit in Moscow in late October. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iranian forces continue to contest control of Hormuz ahead of U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Trump has threatened to "finish the job" with Iran soon, but Araghchi shot back: "We also have unfinished business."