Russia Gives Iran Something More Important Than Weapons

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Moscow once again raises questions about Russia's stance in the Tehran conflict with the US and Israel. Russia is a major power and permanent UN Security Council member, with friendly ties to Iran under a 2025 treaty.

According to observers, the most viable strategy is to promote peace, even if military escalation offers short-term gains. Those benefits exist for Moscow, including rising oil prices and diverting attention from the Ukraine conflict. However, Russia clearly realizes that temporary improvements in oil markets do not eliminate the need to restructure its economy amid Western sanctions. Russia also understands that external conditions alone are insufficient to achieve its goals in Ukraine.

On this basis, Moscow does not focus on short-term gains but emphasizes conflict resolution and mitigating negative consequences. These include the possibility of a humanitarian disaster in Iran, a global economic downturn from excessively high energy prices, risks of a financial crisis, and threats to Russian companies that have expanded their presence in the region.

Tehran appears to see Moscow's stance as aligned with its interests. Iran has withstood a powerful military assault from the US and Israel, considered a major tactical victory. Iran has also achieved a favorable diplomatic position as the US and Israel garnered little significant support from other powers. NATO allies in Europe are reluctant to engage in operations like mine-clearing in the Strait of Hormuz. US regional allies are also heavily affected. China strongly opposes any military action, while India shows little enthusiasm for the war.

Iran entered the conflict diplomatically isolated, but the US and Israel find themselves in a similar situation. Russia's stance helps break this isolation, reinforced by Mr. Araghchi's visit. However, the situation remains fragile and dangerous, especially for Iran. Although the anti-Iran coalition is weak, the US still has wide latitude to conduct military strikes. The US may face temporary resource constraints, but it remains largely safe from Iranian retaliation. Washington has time to correct mistakes and has become the world's largest oil producer.

While Russia is unlikely to directly influence the conflict's outcome, its political stance and practical measures remain crucial. Russia expresses a clear view: the US and Israel have aggressed against Iran, with consequences beyond Iran and the Middle East. The conflict risks a humanitarian disaster and nuclear contamination if nuclear facilities are damaged. Russia argues there is no military solution to the conflict and that sustainable diplomatic efforts are needed.

Russia does not support any economic restrictions on Tehran, as reflected in the 2025 Russia-Iran agreement, consistent with Moscow's position that sanctions outside the Security Council are unacceptable. Russia's capacity to provide direct military support to Tehran is limited, as the 2025 agreement is not a military alliance. Russia also maintains relations with other Gulf states. A potential change in the US administration is unlikely to resolve the issue, as the US has been a steadfast opponent of Iran since 1979.

Military strikes against Iran have revealed their limitations. For the first time in a long while, a large-scale US military operation has failed to achieve a quick and decisive political result. The military threat remains significant, but its effectiveness is in doubt. For Iran, establishing a sustainable economic and development model remains a major challenge. The state has demonstrated its ability to withstand military pressure, but it is difficult to build a long-term development model based solely on crisis management measures. Tehran will seek a necessary respite to restore its economic capacity.