If Netanyahu Goes, Will Anything Really Change for Palestine?

Four of Israel's main opposition political movements have agreed to work together to unseat the country's longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in elections scheduled for October 27.

The factions — the Yashar party, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu and the Together alliance — span widely differing positions on Israel's political spectrum, but say they share the goal of "protecting and strengthening Israel as a Jewish and democratic state."

Recent polls show the opposition bloc in a tight race with the alliance backing Netanyahu, though neither side has yet shown it can secure a parliamentary majority.

The election comes as Israel faces a series of internal crises that have fractured its social fabric: disputes over political responsibility for corruption allegations and security failures; disagreements over military service by ultra-Orthodox Jews; and efforts to exclude Arab parties from political life.

Abroad, Israel is also facing increasingly sharp backlash from its allies over continued attacks in Gaza and Lebanon, settlement expansion — illegal under international law — and settler violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.

Analysts say this combination makes the coming election one of the most consequential in Israel's history. Yet even an opposition victory may bring only incremental change for Palestinians, who are enduring unprecedented levels of settler violence and mass displacement.

While the opposition alliance criticizes Netanyahu personally, the gap between the sides on Israel's fundamental policies in Gaza and the West Bank is very small.

"Palestinians should not expect fundamental change in Israeli policy if the Netanyahu bloc loses power," said Samer Jaber, a doctoral researcher specializing in political economy at Royal Holloway, University of London.

"The major political blocs share core positions on the Palestine question, including support for the existing settlement structure, while the state institutions that plan and execute policy remain unchanged," he added.

Who makes up the anti-Netanyahu alliance?

On September 26, leaders of the four main Jewish-led opposition movements met and signed a declaration pledging not to attack one another ahead of the election and to cooperate in forming a government after the vote.

Those taking part included Yair Lapid, leader of the official opposition in the Knesset; Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party; Naftali Bennett, leader of the Together alliance; Avigdor Lieberman, head of Yisrael Beytenu; and Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats.

The declaration did not name an official leader, but Eisenkot is seen as the opposition's strongest candidate for prime minister. In their joint statement, the figures said defeating the current government is their "highest shared goal."

Among the four opposition parties, Yashar is forecast to be the strongest. A recent Channel 12 poll showed Yashar could win 23 parliamentary seats, the most of any party and more than the 21 projected for Netanyahu's Likud.

Next comes the Together alliance with a projected 13 seats, followed by Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats with nine seats each.

That would give the opposition a total of 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, seven short of a majority. Netanyahu's alliance, which includes several ultra-Orthodox Jewish and far-right parties, is projected to win 49 seats.

Arab-led parties representing Israel's Palestinian citizens, who make up about 20 percent of the population, are projected to win 13 seats. But most leaders of the Jewish-led opposition bloc have ruled out cooperating with them.

Roi Zur, an assistant professor at the University of Essex who runs a research project on the ideology and political policy of Israeli parties, said the anti-Netanyahu alliance has a chance of winning if turnout breaks its way. He noted that some parties that do not "genuinely oppose" the prime minister may fail to clear the 3.25 percent threshold to enter the Knesset, shifting the balance.

"If these parties waste enough right-wing votes, the opposition could convert support into power," Zur told Al Jazeera. "But that may still not be enough."

According to analysts, even if the opposition alliance finds a way to unseat Netanyahu, the new government is likely to remain weak and either unable or unwilling to overhaul Israel's policy in the West Bank and Gaza.

"An anti-Netanyahu government would very likely be a very fragmented coalition with a very thin, if any, majority in the Knesset. That would make such a government hard-pressed to agree on any significant concessions, such as a full withdrawal from Gaza," Anders Persson, a political scientist specializing in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, told Al Jazeera.

"It would also make it hard for the international community to exert real pressure on such a government, because there is always the fear that an anti-Netanyahu government could collapse quickly."

'Mainly right-wing'

Despite their differences, most leaders of the anti-Netanyahu alliance hold hardline positions on Gaza and the West Bank, leaving Palestinians with little reason for optimism.

Yashar's Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief of staff, has called the idea of a Palestinian state an "illusion" and supports "strengthening" Israeli settlements. However, he opposes Israel annexing the entire West Bank and says he would dismantle small outposts not approved by the Israeli government. He also opposes the current government's E1 settlement plan, which would effectively split the West Bank in two. On Gaza, Eisenkot supports pursuing a US-backed peace plan, but only from a position of "strength" and only after "Hamas is fully disarmed."

According to Gaza health officials, Israeli attacks across Gaza since a "ceasefire" took effect last October have killed nearly 1,500 Palestinians, bringing the total death toll since Israel's war in Gaza began in October 2023 to more than 74,000.

Bennett, a former Likud member who served in several governments led by Netanyahu, describes himself as "more right-wing" than Netanyahu and has proposed especially harsh policies in Gaza, at one point calling for a "shoot-to-kill" policy against Palestinians trying to cross into Israel. Bennett firmly opposes a Palestinian state and supports settlement expansion, though he criticizes settler violence against Palestinians. On Gaza's future, he wants Israeli forces to remain in the territory until Hamas is disarmed, and proposes that Egypt — rather than Turkey or Qatar — play a future security role.

Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu also supports settlement expansion, including the E1 plan. He backs annexing all of Area C of the West Bank — which makes up 60 percent of the territory and is already under full Israeli control — while transferring control of other parts to Jordan. On Gaza, his party wants Israel to retain "freedom of action," cut off water and electricity, and eventually hand over governance to "an agreed international entity."

Golan's Democrats are the only party supporting some form of two-state solution, though they call it "responsible separation," including the "complete demilitarization" of a Palestinian state and full Israeli security control over the Jordan Valley and other key areas. The party also supports the complete demilitarization of Gaza and a reconstruction process involving regional states.

Palestinian lawyer and analyst Diana Buttu argues that each opposition leader "has supported Israel's war in Gaza," while also backing settlements or disbelieving in "full equality for Palestinians."

This orientation reflects an increasingly hardline mood within Israeli society itself. According to a September survey by the Pew Research Center, only 17 percent of Israelis polled said peaceful coexistence alongside an independent Palestinian state is feasible. An August survey by the Jewish People Policy Institute found that 38 percent of Jewish Israelis polled supported annexing the entire West Bank, and more than half supported retaining settlements in any future agreement on a Palestinian state.

'Harm reduction'

Even so, some analysts say a new government could reverse or slow some of the current Israeli government's most "controversial and extreme" moves, including those of far-right settler supporters such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich said last month that Israel should "wage war" in the West Bank and repeat what it "did in Gaza."

Dov Waxman, a professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles, who specializes in Israeli politics and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, said changes a new government could make include suspending the E1 settlement project and cracking down on "violence/terrorism by extremist settlers in the West Bank."

He added that a new government would also be expected to "allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza in a more stable, predictable way, and let reconstruction finally begin there."

Palestinian political analyst Ehab Jabareen, a researcher based in Israel, told Al Jazeera that a new government led by Netanyahu's rivals would likely be "more receptive to US and international pressure," creating more room for possible reconstruction in Gaza.

However, Jabareen argued that overall, such a government is unlikely to change Israel's overarching "model" toward Palestinians. "I think the difference will lie less in whether Israel maintains control over Palestinians than in how that control is exercised, legitimized and managed," he said.

Amjad Iraqi, a senior analyst on Israel and Palestine at the International Crisis Group, said any "difference in nuance" matters to Palestinians, who are currently "enduring near-unchecked brutality."

"We are at a point of harm reduction," Iraqi told Al Jazeera. "The issue is trying to reduce the losses. Palestinians are not in a position to expect any fundamental change, but every life saved, every piece of land kept, means a great deal to people on the ground."