Netanyahu caught between US, Lebanon war, and shaky Iran ceasefire

The ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran that took effect on April 8 is widely seen as extremely fragile. Over the weekend, Iran and Israel exchanged fire, only halting after US President Donald Trump intervened on Monday (June 9). However, Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon — a key condition for Iran in any deal — continued. The US and Iran also traded attacks, with Trump threatening to reignite full-scale conflict.

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, things once seemed much simpler when the US and Israel launched their campaign against Iran. After years of effort, he finally persuaded an American president to join in attacking Israel’s arch-foe Iran and to launch devastating strikes on neighboring Lebanon. Both offensives created rare moments of unity among Israeli citizens and politicians, who set aside the mounting death toll and rallied behind Netanyahu in what was portrayed as an existential war.

Three months later, as Israel’s election nears, the landscape is entirely different. Instead of the swift victory Netanyahu promised Trump, the US president finds himself trapped in a costly 'forever war' he once opposed. Israel and Netanyahu are caught between a Lebanese war the domestic public still craves and an American ally that needs a pause to secure a ceasefire with Iran.

“He is in a huge bind, both politically and diplomatically,” Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York, told Al Jazeera, outlining the political price Netanyahu is paying for three 'lost' wars: in Gaza, where Hamas still holds control; in Lebanon, where Hezbollah has not been eliminated despite the prime minister’s promises; and against Iran. “Diplomatically, Israel is isolated and its perception is very negative,” Pinkas said.

A view from Lebanon

The latest flare-up between Iran and Israel was triggered by an Israeli strike on Beirut, the Lebanese capital, on Sunday evening. Iran insists that any deal with the US to end the regional conflict must include a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah. At the same time, Iran reaffirms support for its Lebanese ally and calls for Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon, highlighting the obstacles to a broader US-Iran agreement.

“This war will end only when it ends in Lebanon,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier this week. But it may not be simple. For years, Israeli politicians have viewed both Iran and Hezbollah as fundamental threats to Israel’s security.

A survey by the Israel Democracy Institute in April, shortly after the first Iran-US ceasefire, showed a large majority of Israelis urged the country to continue the war in Lebanon regardless of the US stance. Earlier signs that Netanyahu might prioritize US concerns over the victory he promised Israelis provided his political rivals with fresh ammunition. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett criticized Netanyahu in late May as he prepared for the election: “The government is taking us back to the despicable policy of restraint and normalizing an unacceptable situation. Dahiyeh (southern Beirut suburb) must tremble until security returns to the north.” Bennett’s ally, Yair Lapid, stressed: “Israel is not a protectorate,” alluding to US influence, “the responsibility for the security of Israeli citizens lies solely with the Israeli government.”

Little remains of Netanyahu’s initial promise of 'total victory' over Israel’s enemies, all of which remain intact, according to Ahron Bregman, senior lecturer in the War Studies Department at King’s College London. “Lebanon has once again proven itself a trap for the Israelis,” he said, referring to previous Israeli invasions of Lebanon that all ended in withdrawal and failure. “It will be very difficult for Netanyahu to pull forces out of Lebanon now, and even harder to bomb Beirut because Iran might bomb Israel,” he concluded.

Elections

Polls in northern Israel – the region most at risk from Lebanon – show support for Netanyahu dropping sharply. Nationally, some polls indicate that the broad political bloc calling itself 'anti-Netanyahu' is leading ahead of the election expected later this year. “Electorally, he has nothing to run on,” Pinkas said of Netanyahu’s chances. “He failed on October 7, 2023 (the Hamas-led attack on Israel) despite calling himself the greatest anti-terror leader, and he failed in Iran despite a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity with America on his side,” Pinkas said, adding that the corruption trial Netanyahu is embroiled in also poses a threat.

“Most wars start with a wave of popularity and promises of generational security, before bogging down in quagmire and chaos,” Yossi Mekelberg from Chatham House said of Israel’s current situation. “Historically, Israel only sustained support for its wars when it fought short wars. Now it finds itself fighting on multiple fronts,” Mekelberg added, pointing to the internal strains of more than two-and-a-half years of conflict, in a society already divided by numerous wars.