Netanyahu rejects US-backed Gaza plan, risking prolonged conflict

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rejection of the US-led peace roadmap for Gaza has raised serious concerns about the fragile peace process and prolonged suffering for over two million Palestinians in the territory.

The 15-point US-mediated plan requires Hamas to disarm in exchange for a phased Israeli withdrawal and the transfer of governance to a Palestinian technocratic committee, backed by an international security force. However, in a speech on Sunday, just weeks before Israel's pivotal election, Netanyahu stalled the diplomatic process by asserting that troops would not withdraw until Hamas “actually disarms.”

Since US President Donald Trump unveiled his Gaza peace plan last year, Israel has continued near-daily deadly strikes, violating the ceasefire agreement. Instead of withdrawing forces, Israel now maintains military control over more than 70% of the strip's territory.

Netanyahu's announcement sent shockwaves through Gaza, extinguishing recent optimism and increasing the risk of violent attacks. Political analyst Eyad al-Qarra in Gaza said: “People are afraid because of the possibility of Netanyahu carrying out assassination operations, bombings, and targeting near the yellow zones,” referring to the “Yellow Route” – a buffer zone unilaterally imposed by Israel, pushing Palestinians into smaller areas.

The Gaza Government Media Office viewed the rejection as a deliberate tactic to continue the war. In a statement, the office called it “a clear and public coup against the path of negotiations and its outcomes, deliberately hindering the path toward stability and worsening the humanitarian situation.” It also accused Israel of “using negotiations as a political cover to buy time, implement destructive projects, and continue the genocidal war against civilians.”

Hamas, following Netanyahu's statement, affirmed its commitment to the diplomatic process under the auspices of the US-led Peace Council and International Stabilization Force, while demanding that relevant parties be held accountable. Al-Qarra warned that if mediators do not pressure Israel, Palestinians could face “the worst option, which is declaring a real end to these negotiations after Netanyahu's rejection and coup against them.”

Diplomatically, Netanyahu's move triggered strong reactions in the region. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty warned that the threat of forced displacement of Gaza's residents remains present. He stressed that “so-called voluntary displacement cannot be considered voluntary if they create conditions that make life in the Gaza Strip impossible,” adding that this is a “red line” for Egypt, Arab states, and Islamic nations. He also criticized the failure to implement the first phase of the deal, including the target of at least 600 aid trucks entering Gaza daily.

According to political analysts, Netanyahu's demand for full Hamas disarmament before withdrawal is not a genuine security requirement but a deliberate mechanism to obstruct the implementation of the agreement. Expert Mahjoob Zweiri, a specialist in Middle East politics, said Netanyahu is essentially driven by a desire to prevent the return of a functioning Palestinian society. “He does not want Gaza to return to what it was before October 6, 2023. That means: no Hamas governance, no Palestinian governance, no weapons, no normal life. In other words, he wants to make Gaza an uninhabitable area,” Zweiri said.

Zweiri also pointed out that setting full disarmament as a precondition is impossible from the start, as Israel understands that ending weapons in an environment like Gaza or Lebanon is nearly impossible due to the lack of weapons databases and no reliable mediator. He also predicted a “diplomatic storm” and a “diplomatic clash” between Netanyahu and Trump.

Israel affairs expert Nihad Abu Ghosh argued that Israel's sudden reversal reveals its strategic priorities for Gaza's future. According to him, Israeli officials know the plan's details well but bet that Hamas would reject it. “The core issue is that Israel does not want to abandon the option of displacing the population. Everything happening from these partial rejections of one aspect or another is essentially Israel clinging to displacement from the Gaza Strip and moving the population,” Abu Ghosh said, adding that Netanyahu wants to turn his rejection into “a binding constraint for any future Israeli government.”

Analysts also suggest that the timing of Netanyahu's rejection is tied to his domestic political survival ahead of October elections. The Likud leader has faced multiple corruption charges since 2019 and could face prison if convicted. Expert Adel Sheded noted that Netanyahu “was waiting for this opportunity to say a big 'no' to President Trump, in order to control the debate, propaganda, and the election campaign with it.” Netanyahu wants to prove to the Israeli public that he is the only one who can say no to the US administration.

Similarly, expert Suleiman Bisharat argued that the Israeli Prime Minister is exploiting Gaza to pressure the US on broader regional issues. “It is clear that Benjamin Netanyahu wants to turn the tables on all issues, starting with the file related to the Gaza Strip, with the justification that it is the file that sets the stage for the rest,” he said, emphasizing that this challenge stems from his desire to appear as a hero in the eyes of the far-right Israeli public to secure his political future.