US Turns to Russian Diesel Despite Sanctions

US President Donald Trump says he has reached an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to release Russian diesel in a bid to cool soaring fuel costs in the United States ahead of November's midterm elections. Experts, however, say the deal is unlikely to have a significant impact on the global energy crisis, while European countries may refuse to buy Russian oil.

The deal comes despite sanctions imposed on Russia over the war in Ukraine, including the latest package announced by Washington last month that directly targets buyers of Russian oil.

What did Trump and Putin agree to?

On Friday evening, Trump announced on social media that after what he called a "tremendously successful" exchange with Putin, the two sides agreed Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the US and global markets.

According to Trump, a further 500,000 tons would be released in November and another 1 million tons after that. He said that based on the current state of diesel refineries, Russia would continue to supply an additional 3 million tons.

The US president said the move, along with what he described as full US control of the Strait of Hormuz, would help bring down diesel prices in the US and the rest of the world. "Lower prices for the American people, especially farmers, ranchers and truck drivers, is my highest priority," he wrote on Truth Social.

Trump later thanked Putin and told reporters: "Frankly, we're importing a lot of oil into the country, and diesel is what we need." On the Russian side, Putin said Moscow "confirms its readiness to supply oil and petroleum products to the US market as well as global markets."

Why is there a global diesel crisis?

Global fuel prices have soared amid the impact of the US-Israel war with Iran and the Russia-Ukraine war. Tehran has largely blockaded the Strait of Hormuz — a shipping route that once carried 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies in peacetime — since the US and Israel struck Iran in February.

A recent attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, another key oil export route from the Gulf, along with Houthi attacks in Yemen around the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, have compounded supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, refineries, energy facilities and seaports in both Russia and Ukraine have also come under repeated attack. Global fuel inventories have plunged, with diesel prices hitting records in both the US and Europe in September. Last week, the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency reserves of diesel and crude oil, after Washington pressured the European Union into concessions by threatening to ban US diesel exports.

Capital Economics commodities economist Hamad Hussain said the impact of the G7 reserve release "will only be short-lived because it is merely a temporary fix for a supply shortfall."

How is the diesel crisis affecting the US?

Surging diesel prices pushed the US national average to a record $6.52 per gallon (3.79 liters) in September, more than double the level a year earlier. The average now stands at $6.20, according to AAA.

The US is the world's largest exporter of diesel, but inventories have fallen sharply since the Iran war broke out and remain below normal levels even as refineries ramp up output.

In September, US lawmakers and Trump considered restricting diesel exports to lower costs for consumers. Trump also urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop attacking diesel fuel targets, accusing him of causing the shortages after Ukraine stepped up strikes on Russia's oil industry to undermine revenues financing the war. Trump made no similar demand of Russia over its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Lowering diesel prices before the midterms is a particular concern for Trump. The Iran war is unpopular with voters, and many small business owners in the MAGA-supporting base depend on affordable diesel. Consumers are also affected, since diesel is used to transport food and goods and to run agricultural machinery.

The latest Pew Research Center survey shows the economy is the most important issue for 84 percent of registered voters. States that once voted for Trump, such as Iowa and Kansas, are now seen as battlegrounds in the November 3 election, piling pressure on Trump to avoid Republican defeats.

What does this mean for US sanctions on Russian oil?

The US banned imports of Russian oil and gas in 2022 under the Biden administration, in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine in February of that year. Sweeping Russia sanctions legislation passed by Congress last month and signed by Trump also targets countries that buy Russian oil and gas.

The Lindsey O. Graham Russia and Iran Sanctions Act of 2026 expands existing sanctions, targeting officials, banks and the "shadow" tankers that facilitate Russia's energy trade, while giving Trump the power to impose 100 percent tariffs on the five largest importers of Russian oil and gas.

After Trump's announcement on Friday, the US Treasury Department said the Office of Foreign Assets Control "immediately issued a temporary general license allowing Russian diesel to be supplied to global markets."

Is Russia facing a fuel crisis?

Yes, and that makes experts skeptical that Russia can release the large volumes of diesel Trump promised. Neil Atkinson, a former head of the oil markets division at the International Energy Agency, told Al Jazeera it is hard to imagine Russia delivering the volumes mentioned without sacrificing its domestic market.

Russia was once the world's second-largest diesel exporter after the US, but its diesel and gas oil exports in the third quarter of this year totaled just 190,000 barrels per day, down sharply from 690,000 bpd in the second quarter and 850,000 bpd in the first, according to maritime intelligence analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann of Windward, citing Vortexa data.

Russia banned diesel exports in July to meet domestic demand and at the end of September extended the ban through October. Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities have also contributed to the fuel crisis, with Putin acknowledging that 1 percent of Russia's GDP has been affected. Ukraine's Defense Ministry claims the strikes have destroyed more than half of Russia's refining capacity. In July, Ukraine also attacked hundreds of Russian "shadow" tankers in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, affecting gas shipments to Crimea.

Bockmann said Russia's domestic shortage is "so severe that for the first time in the third quarter, we saw Russia importing gasoline, diesel and gas oil." She said that just this week a tanker carrying diesel and gas oil docked at the port of Vysotsk.

Last week, Russia said it would consider partially lifting diesel export restrictions if output exceeded demand. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told parliament that the domestic market had balanced out and that "if diesel output exceeds domestic demand, we will consider reopening part of exports." According to the International Energy Agency, Russia typically produces twice its domestic diesel needs, and summer-grade diesel can be released to make room for the winter and Arctic grades needed in the coming months.

How did Ukraine react?

Trump's announcement came as US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were meeting Ukrainian officials and European negotiators in Miami, Florida, to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine war as it enters its fifth year.

Zelenskyy called the deal "the weak decision of strong partners," arguing it "benefits Russia, helping it kill more people and prolong the war."

Can Russian diesel ease pressure on global prices?

On Friday, Putin expressed confidence the deal "will have a positive impact on the entire global economy," while saying the two sides reaffirmed they would maintain personal contact between the two presidents and continue cooperation between government and security agencies.

Analysts, however, say the deal is unlikely to resolve the global energy crisis. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, called it a short-term fix and "a classic Trump deal": announcing an "agreement" with an unsavory dictator, complete with flashy numbers but no certainty of achieving any goal.

He noted that even if some diesel leaves Russia, it remains only a short-term solution because global diesel consumption is about 30 million barrels per day, equivalent to the total volume that could be released under the outline of the deal Trump announced.

Bockmann also said it is unclear how much the release of Russian diesel will affect prices and the global shortage. Atkinson said the volumes Trump announced — even if Russia can supply them — "won't really make a big difference" because the US consumes about 3.7 million barrels of diesel per day.

There are also signs European countries may not buy Russian oil. According to Atkinson, it is hard to imagine a European government buying Russian oil on moral grounds, when Europe's goal for the past four years has been to cut its dependence on Russian oil and gas as soon as possible.