US and Iran close to 'breakthrough' deal?

US President Donald Trump is heading into a busy weekend. The World Cup returns to America after three decades; the White House prepares for a UFC fight to mark his 80th birthday on Sunday; after that, he will fly to the French Alps for the G7 summit.

But amid the glitz, Trump is pursuing what could be a defining moment of his presidency: a deal with Iran he says is imminent, potentially ending three months of war in the Persian Gulf.

Just after threatening to seize Iran's vital Kharg oil terminal, which handles 90% of its crude exports, on Thursday Trump said he had called off airstrikes because a deal with Tehran was near – and signaled a signing could take place in Europe by the weekend.

Tehran acknowledges talks but notes that a final decision on the proposed deal has not been reached.

Analysts caution, however, that any 'deal' now would not be a final peace treaty – more likely an understanding to maintain a ceasefire while longer negotiations proceed.

Since the US and Israel launched the war by striking Iran in late February, Trump has declared nearly 40 times that a deal with Iran was close. But after months of lurching from crisis to crisis – with the US and Iran exchanging fire multiple times this week alone – diplomacy continues.

While direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed almost as soon as they began in April, the two sides have since exchanged a series of proposals and counterproposals for peace through Pakistani mediation.

So what is the 'deal' Trump is announcing to end this war, which is unpopular in the US, has eroded his approval ratings, and triggered the worst energy crisis in modern history?

What has Trump said about the Iran deal?

In a post on Truth Social on Thursday, Trump announced that 'discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been elevated to the highest levels of Iranian leadership and approved.' Consequently, Washington called off planned airstrikes and bombings on Thursday night.

Trump added that 'discussions and final points have been, both conceptually and in major detail, approved by all relevant parties, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others.'

The president said the time and place for signing the deal would be 'announced shortly.' He added that a ceremony could take place somewhere in Europe by the weekend, hosted by Vice President JD Vance. Vance led direct talks in Islamabad in April when the ceasefire was first brokered.

Trump believes Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has also approved the deal. Tehran has not confirmed this. In a phone call endorsing Republican Senate candidate Barry Moore, Trump said: 'We have a great deal. There will be no nuclear weapons. People will start going home soon. It's almost done. We got everything we wanted.'

Is the deal actually done?

Iran has not confirmed its side of any deal – in fact, it has dismissed Trump's comments as 'speculation'. Moreover, analysts warn that Trump's rhetoric does not always match reality.

On Friday, Wolfgang Pusztai, a defense analyst and former Austrian military official, dismissed Trump's claim that a definitive deal ending the war with Iran would be announced. 'All statements by the US president must be taken with a grain of salt,' he said. 'Trump's statements are part of information warfare.'

Pusztai told Al Jazeera that Trump has three target audiences: his Republican base, the stock and oil markets, and the Iranian government. 'He wants to increase pressure on Iran with these statements, by threatening military action and continuing the blockade.'

What is Iran saying?

Esmaeil Baghaei, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, said Washington's claims 'about a deal are speculation and nothing has been finalized.' 'If Iran were going to back down from its principled positions under pressure and threats, it would have done so a year ago,' he added, responding to Trump's assertion that Tehran is under pressure to agree to a deal.

'So far, Iran has not reached a final conclusion on the deal,' he said, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency. 'Due to the illegal actions of the US in the aggression against Iran, the diplomatic process has also been affected.'

Baghaei acknowledged that 'mediators are actively working and we have clearly communicated our position to them,' referring to Qatar and Pakistan. 'The negotiation situation has been clear to us from the beginning, and most of the text has been completed, but the Americans keep changing their positions. Iran has proven that it does not compromise on what it considers red lines.'

So, what would a potential deal include?

On the US side, Trump made clear in multiple statements Thursday that Iran would not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, a US red line. 'The biggest thing is there will be no nuclear weapons in Iran. That means no development and no purchase,' Trump said.

Iranian officials have long stressed that the country's nuclear activities are limited to energy production and other civilian purposes, dismissing allegations that Tehran seeks to build a nuclear bomb. However, since the US unilaterally withdrew from the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, which limited Iran's uranium enrichment to energy purposes only, Iran is believed to have built a stockpile of 440kg of uranium enriched to 60%, a level far beyond energy needs.

Trump added that, under the deal, the US naval blockade of Iran's ports would be lifted immediately and the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has closed, would be reopened to maritime traffic, 'and you will see oil prices drop like a rock.'

Iran has not confirmed the content of the deal. Trump has not commented on whether Lebanon, which Israel has struck almost daily since the Iran war began, is included. Israel has occupied nearly one-fifth of Lebanon since early March, when Lebanese armed group Hezbollah joined the war in retaliation for airstrikes on Iran.

While Iran says it will not consider any deal that does not include a full ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel wants to retain the right to strike Hezbollah targets there. Analysts question whether Trump can restrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on this issue. Netanyahu's office said the Israeli premier spoke with Trump about 'the emerging memorandum with Iran to begin negotiations', clarifying that Israel is not a party to the deal and that the final outcome would include removal of enriched material, dismantling enrichment infrastructure, limiting missile production, and ending Iran's support for regional proxy forces.

Meanwhile, Qatar's Emir also spoke with Trump, welcoming efforts to reach a deal and saying his country supports 'anything that will strengthen regional and international security and stability.'

What does Iran want?

Iran's Mehr news agency reported that Iran has submitted a draft 14-point memorandum, subject to change. Ultimately, Iran wants to separate the Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz issues from broader negotiations on the nuclear program and ballistic missiles, among other topics. For now, they want an 'immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon,' and a US commitment not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs.

They propose reopening the Strait of Hormuz 'under Iranian arrangements' within 30 days, and the complete lifting of the US naval blockade. Mehr also reported that Iran wants all sanctions on its oil sales lifted and all frozen Iranian assets released. They then propose a 60-day negotiation period to reach a final deal on nuclear and deeper issues, although Tehran has reiterated its commitment not to produce nuclear weapons in the draft. Discussions on Iran's missile program and support for regional allies like Hezbollah 'have been definitively removed from the agenda' for this initial deal.

What are the main obstacles to a final US-Iran deal?

Iran's nuclear program: After decades of animosity, Tehran's nuclear program remains the central point of contention. The US makes clear that Iran cannot possess, purchase, or develop nuclear weapons. Iran maintains that its program is for civilian purposes and may be willing to negotiate limits on nuclear activities if sanctions are lifted.

Sanctions: Iran is the world's most sanctioned country. US sanctions have crippled its economy, banking system, and oil exports. Iran insists on an end to the sanctions regime, while the US appears willing to work in a phased and conditional manner, but differences on implementation remain.

Strait of Hormuz: Iran closed the strategic waterway, through which 20% of the world's oil and gas supply passes in peacetime, immediately after the war began. Iran sees the Strait of Hormuz as its most important negotiating leverage and will not give up control. The US has imposed a corresponding naval blockade on Iran's ports. On Thursday morning, Trump still asserted US control over the strait, even as Iran's Revolutionary Guards maintain tight control. Iran argues the Strait of Hormuz lies within Iranian and Omani territorial waters and is considering charging transit fees for ships.

Iran's frozen assets: The fate of billions of dollars in Iranian funds frozen abroad is another point of contention. Tehran wants access to these assets, arguing the money belongs to Iran and is needed for economic recovery. US negotiators appear reluctant to agree to large-scale release without significant concessions on the nuclear program.

Expanding the ceasefire to Lebanon: Israel's bombardment and occupation of nearly one-fifth of Lebanon is a major obstacle. Iran pushes for a broader regional ceasefire, including an end to airstrikes targeting allies like Hezbollah. Andrea Dessi, lecturer in international relations at the American University in Rome, told Al Jazeera: 'The big question is whether Netanyahu will accept a deal that requires Israel to stop hostilities in Lebanon and even withdraw. The idea of linking Lebanon to the Iran front is something the Israeli government has tried to avoid as much as possible.'

Will we ever see a final peace deal?

Aniseh Tabrizi, associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House in London, told Al Jazeera that both sides are not ready to finalize a deal, but they may be closer to agreeing a 'memorandum of understanding' that paves the way for deeper talks. 'Until a deal is actually signed, it's hard to say it's truly done. It's risky to celebrate too early. There will be more hurdles both need to address, including spoilers like Israel who will try to scuttle everything until the last minute,' she warned.

She argued that any final deal leading to lasting peace between the US and Iran will be difficult. 'It's one thing to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for economic incentives, and entirely another to finalize a deal with details on the nuclear issue, Iran's regional posture, and the security guarantees Iran wants in return. The final deal remains very challenging.'

Richard Weitz, international security expert at the NATO Defense College, said Trump's announcement 'sounds like a staged deal, with a few provisions implemented quickly, like opening the Strait of Hormuz', and 'others to be resolved later, like the nuclear issue'. 'There is always the risk that you can start well enough, but then they get bogged down in details later, and that leads to reimposition or reversal of the achievements of the first stage.'

Arman Mahmoudian, professor at the University of South Florida, argued that there has been 'a major shift in diplomacy in less than a week', referring to the latest round of fighting. 'It shows everyone that the current status quo – 'no war, no peace' – is unsustainable. Either it resolves into a war, or it must be a deal from here. There is no third option in that.'