US pushes initiative to form unified Libyan government, testing faction loyalties in Tripoli

Tripoli, Libya – Amid a flurry of regional diplomacy and intelligence activity, Libya's political crisis is approaching a turning point. A new US-backed initiative aimed at ending institutional divisions and merging the executive branch has won significant backing in the east, putting the onus on factions in the west.

The initiative, led by White House senior director for Middle East and Africa Massad Boulos, focuses on forming a unified government, merging state institutions, and encouraging US oil investment. While Boulos insists it supplements UN efforts, the plan has sparked heated debate over whether Washington can truly bridge Libya's traditional divides or is offering another failed blueprint.

Breaking the silence in Tripoli

The political quiet in western Libya was broken on June 21, when Abdul Hakim Belhaj, a prominent political figure and former commander of the Tripoli Military Council, formally declared his support for the US initiative.

Belhaj, now head of the al-Watan party, called on the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) to state its position on the proposal. He described the US plan as “an opportunity to accelerate political solutions to end the current division,” stressing that any deal should be based on “what is feasible and acceptable, rather than perfect but impossible.”

Although Belhaj's influence has waned in recent years, his endorsement carries symbolic weight in western Libya. It followed expressions of support from eastern forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Haftar and over 100 members of the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR).

HoR member Aisha al-Tabalqi told Al Jazeera that the US initiative stands out because it builds on understanding between the two main factions that wield real power on the ground. The emergence of supportive voices from the west, she said, could boost its chances of broader acceptance.

However, the depth of support remains contested. Mohammed al-Maazab, a member of the High Council of State (HCS), revealed that some HoR members told him privately their names were added to the list of endorsers without their knowledge. Al-Maazab dismissed Belhaj's move as an attempt to “position himself as a party to future political arrangements,” calling it “a leap that will not significantly affect the balance of power.”

Political roadmap or family deal?

The mechanics of the US proposal are under intense scrutiny by Libyan analysts. Many fear the initiative may entrench a long-term power-sharing pact rather than pave the way for democracy.

In a recent Al Jazeera Arabic program, political analyst Abdulsalam al-Rajhi criticized the effort as “closer to a transaction than an initiative.” Al-Rajhi argued that Boulos, lacking deep diplomatic experience, is seeking a quick geopolitical win.

“The problem with the Boulos deal is that it is designed around specific individuals,” al-Rajhi said, citing leaks suggesting the plan would install Saddam Haftar – son of eastern commander Khalifa Haftar – as head of a new Presidential Council, and Ibrahim Dbeibah, nephew of sitting GNU Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, as the new prime minister. Both men were named in a recent UN Panel of Experts report on oil smuggling and financial misappropriation, al-Rajhi noted.

In contrast, Tripoli-based political analyst Senussi Ismail argued that while concerns about a return to autocracy or family rule are legitimate, the current political stalemate demands calculated risks.

“The majority view is to engage positively with Mr. Boulos's initiative,” Ismail said, urging that the US plan be integrated with the UN roadmap. He stressed that any new unity government must be bound by a specific timeline leading to presidential and parliamentary elections, preventing fresh authorities from holding power indefinitely.

William Lawrence, a former US diplomat and international relations professor, defended US engagement. “The only way Mr. Boulos can get a foot in the door is to find an economic solution and unify Libya's economic institutions,” Lawrence said. “I believe he comes with good intentions and is trying to achieve a comprehensive, lasting solution… I see no alternative plan at this point.”

Regional developments

The debate over the US initiative unfolds amid intensive regional maneuvering. Last week, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey met Boulos in Cairo to discuss the Libya file. Simultaneously, Pakistan's foreign ministry announced the formation of a new “R-4” regional mechanism comprising Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to support regional stability.

This diplomatic push is matched by notable intelligence activity inside Libya:

• In the west: Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad visited Tripoli for rare talks with GNU Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah.
• In the east: Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin traveled to Benghazi to meet Saddam Haftar, discussing institutional unification efforts and strengthening stability.

National security researcher Faisal Bwalraiga told Al Jazeera that these parallel moves reflect international efforts to create a favorable environment for new political deals.

“Libya is currently moving between two possibilities: achieving a new political settlement, or a readjustment of the balance of power among different parties,” Bwalraiga said. He noted Washington views its initiative as a lever to support the UN process, not a substitute.

For now, the GNU has not issued an official position on the US plan. Political analyst Elias al-Barouni said the government's caution is calculated, aimed at preserving political space, avoiding rifts within the western camp, and waiting for Washington's final stance to crystallize.