US Imports Potash from Belarus: A New Supply Source Amid Trade Tensions with Canada

The US is preparing to receive its first potash shipment from Belarus in four years, as President Donald Trump looks to lower fertilizer costs for American farmers amid surging prices driven by the conflict with Iran and a trade dispute with Canada.

According to data from Kpler, the 30,000-tonne potash cargo is expected to dock at New Orleans on Wednesday. The shipment follows Washington's decision in March to lift sanctions on Belarus's major potash producers, opening a path to resuming trade.

Although the Belarusian cargo accounts for only a small fraction of the 5.6 million tonnes of potash the US imported last year, it signals a cautious opening in relations between Washington and Minsk.

Trump has said the US is negotiating a larger deal to buy fertilizer from Belarus at prices significantly below what it currently pays Canada, its dominant supplier. Analysts, however, question whether Belarus can compete with Canadian producers on price and expand exports enough to meaningfully shift the US market.

What is potash and why does the US need it?

Potash is a potassium-rich mineral and one of the main fertilizer nutrients. It is an essential crop nutrient with no substitute, widely used in agriculture, including for corn and soybeans.

The US relies heavily on imports to meet its potash needs. According to the US Geological Survey's 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries, Canada accounts for nearly 80% of US potash imports. Russia is second at 12%.

That dependence makes fertilizer supply an economic and political issue, particularly as farmers face rising production costs. In recent months, US farmers have reported higher fuel and fertilizer expenses, squeezing already thin margins.

Trump is reportedly concerned that financial pressure could cost Republicans a share of the farm vote in this year's midterm elections. In 2024, Trump won 78% of the vote in agriculture-dependent counties. At an agriculture town hall in Wisconsin in June, Trump promised fertilizer prices would "drop dramatically" once the US moved past its conflict with Iran.

Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have further pressured the global fertilizer market, especially for nitrogen-based products. Potash, however, is less directly affected by the crisis, since the US relies mainly on Canadian supply.

Trump argues that buying potash from Belarus could cut costs. An additional supplier could also give US buyers more choice in a market dominated by Canadian imports.

For farmers, the immediate benefit remains uncertain. Fertilizer is one of many major expenses for agricultural businesses, alongside diesel and machinery. Even a drop in potash prices would not necessarily offset increases elsewhere.

Can Belarus supply cheaper fertilizer?

In September, Trump touted a potential potash deal with Belarus on social media.

"The United States is negotiating a major deal to buy Potash from Belarus," Trump wrote. "The price will be substantially lower than what we are paying to Canada, great news for our Farmers and Ranchers."

Trump has promoted Belarusian potash as a cheaper alternative to Canadian supply, but the economics of shipping it to US buyers complicate that plan.

Belarus is landlocked, and EU restrictions affect its export routes, forcing potash to travel a roundabout path through Russia. According to the Financial Times, the upcoming shipment was loaded at Russia's Bronka port near St Petersburg.

These logistics challenges can raise shipping costs and make Belarusian supply less competitive, even if the product itself is cheaper.

Scale also matters. A single shipment shows US–Belarus trade has resumed, but it does not mean Belarus can replace a significant share of Canadian potash or bring down prices across the US market.

Still, access to an alternative supplier could give Washington more leverage in negotiations with Canadian producers, helping US buyers secure more competitive potash prices.

Can Belarus replace Canada as the main potash supplier to the US?

US–Canada relations have been strained since Trump's second term began, when he imposed sweeping tariffs on most trading partners, including Canada. His administration initially imposed a 25% tariff on many Canadian imports in March 2025, including potash, but reduced it to 10% after pushback from farm groups and lawmakers. Potash that meets USMCA rules — the trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada — is exempt. Most Canadian potash imports qualify under USMCA and remain tariff-free.

Trump has said Washington will keep buying from Canada, even if Belarus offers to sell potash at a lower price.

But the prospect of Belarus becoming a major supplier remains unlikely. In September, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said his country could not supply large volumes of potash fertilizer to the US.

"Even if we wanted to supply [potash] to other Western markets, we simply don't have those volumes — everything has already been signed," Lukashenko said.

Whether this October shipment becomes part of a much larger deal will depend on the ability to sustain exports and the durability of the diplomatic opening between Washington and Minsk.

Why did the US sanction Belarus, and why is it lifting them?

The expected shipment marks a significant step in restoring trade between Washington and Minsk, which have been at odds for years over Belarus's human rights record and its support for Russia's war in Ukraine.

Under former Democratic President Joe Biden, the US imposed additional sanctions on Belarus in 2021 after Lukashenko's authoritarian government cracked down on mass protests against the disputed 2020 presidential election. Belarus also faced Western sanctions for allowing Russian forces to use its territory in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

But since Trump returned to the White House in 2025, his administration has pursued direct talks with Lukashenko. Those negotiations led to the release of political prisoners in exchange for the easing of US sanctions, clearing a path for new economic ties.

In March, Belarus freed 250 political prisoners under a US-brokered deal. Washington then lifted sanctions on Belarus's major potash producers and eased restrictions on some financial institutions. In September, US envoy John Coale announced a follow-up deal under which Belarus would release 25 prisoners in exchange for further sanctions relief.

This rapprochement has opened the door to deeper trade cooperation proposals.

On September 29, Lukashenko said he had agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russian state energy giant Gazprom would join a project to build a nitrogen fertilizer plant in Belarus. He proposed inviting the US to join the project using American technology, according to Reuters.

Ahead of that deal, exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said agreements with Lukashenko carry risks.

"Our position is that it is not yet time to trade with the regime while all the income from potash goes into repression, into supporting Russia's war machine," Tsikhanouskaya told AFP in September.

The proposal has not confirmed that Washington will join the project. But along with Trump's interest in buying Belarusian potash, it shows Minsk is seeking to turn improved political ties into broader commercial opportunities.