Mexico tightens its grip on drug cartels, risking internal violence

Less than two months after the death of notorious drug lord “El Mencho,” the Mexican military has struck again at the top tier of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). Special forces raided a ranch in the state of Nayarit, arresting Audias Flores, known as “El Jardinero,” who was considered a potential successor of the CJNG. Drone footage showed Flores trying to hide inside a sewer pipe but was dragged out without a shot being fired.

With two major successes in two months, the Mexican government appears to be ramping up high-value target operations ahead of the country’s hosting of the World Cup. Officials hope this will not trigger bloody internal power struggles, as has happened in similar crackdowns in the past.

“We haven’t seen any signs of a rift inside the CJNG yet,” said Victoria Dittmar, a researcher at consultancy Insight Crime. “But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. With the World Cup approaching, I expect the Mexican authorities have a plan and believe this will not lead to chaos.”

Since taking office in 2024, President Claudia Sheinbaum has pursued a more aggressive security policy compared to her predecessor. Official figures show a surge in drug seizures and arrests, along with an emphasis on using intelligence to dismantle criminal structures. However, under pressure from US President Donald Trump, Mexico is reverting to the old tactic of targeting kingpins.

“These blows will change perceptions of state action,” said Armando Vargas, security program coordinator at the consultancy México Evalúa. “But they may not necessarily affect the CJNG’s operations.”

Analysts fear that eliminating cartel leaders could fragment criminal organizations, leading rival factions to fight for territory and business. The ongoing internal war within the Sinaloa cartel is a stark example.

However, El Mencho’s death in February triggered only a brief spike in violence, as cartel gunmen retaliated against security forces, but it quickly subsided. No succession war has erupted.

El Jardinero, who controlled CJNG operations in Nayarit and the tourist town of Puerto Vallarta, was one of the few seen as a possible next leader. Media reports indicate that Juan Carlos Valencia González, El Mencho’s stepson, may have already taken over. But at a press conference following the arrest, Mexican authorities said their intelligence indicated El Jardinero was amassing personnel and firepower to seize power himself.

Analysts argue that criminal gangs are essentially businesses, and disrupting operations during the World Cup would be against their economic interests. “I don’t think they are thinking about destabilising the country, but about how to make a lot of money from tourists,” Vargas said.

The arrest of El Jardinero was welcomed by the US government, which provided intelligence support and possible extradition. Shortly before the arrest, US Ambassador to Mexico, Ronald Johnson, hinted that corrupt politicians could be the next target. On Wednesday, the US Department of Justice indicted the governor of Sinaloa and nine other senior officials on drug and weapons trafficking charges. “I think the idea is that after dealing with the top fugitives, they will go after the politicians,” Dittmar said.