A survey released Friday by CNT/MDA shows Senator Flavio Bolsonaro winning 46.8% of the vote, compared with 45.9% for incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the second round of Brazil's presidential election scheduled for October 25.
The result follows a series of earlier polls. A day earlier, a Quaest survey put Bolsonaro at 46% to Lula's 44%. Another poll by Datafolha found Bolsonaro at 47% against Lula's 45%, a slight dip from 49% a week ago.
All three surveys now fall within the 2% margin of error, leading many experts to still view the race as even. Nevertheless, they reflect a political landscape that is not particularly favorable for Lula, who a month ago had been predicted to win easily.
The backdrop shifted after Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, won the most votes in the first round on October 4 with 56,104,503 votes, compared with 53,879,538 for Lula.
The 42-year-old senator pursues a political line close to that of his father. Former President Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running for office until 2030 after the electoral court concluded he abused his power to cast doubt on the 2022 election results. He is currently under house arrest as part of a 27-year prison sentence related to his attempt to overturn the election result, which he lost to Lula.
Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to crack down on crime and drug trafficking while cutting taxes used to fund government programs. If elected, he would become the latest conservative leader in a region with close ties to U.S. President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, the 80-year-old Lula is holding regular rallies to energize his supporters. He is seeking a non-consecutive fourth term after a political career spanning nearly five decades. On Wednesday, Brazil's Congress passed an amendment allowing workers two paid days off per week instead of one, handing Lula a major win on one of his top social reform pledges just days before the vote.
The election comes at a pivotal moment for Latin America's largest economy. Brazilians are worried about crime and the cost of living, while the country faces increasingly tense relations with the United States. The vote is also being closely watched across a region that has shifted sharply to the right in a series of recent elections.
