ISW: Ukraine may have turned the tide in April
John T Psaropoulos
Ukraine may have gained more territory than it lost in April, according to ISW, while Russia suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometers. Russian advances have slowed by at least two-thirds over 18 months, and Ukraine struck multiple oil refineries in recent days. Diplomatic progress was also noted with Slovakia and Hungary.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, said Ukraine may have reversed the battlefield dynamic by reclaiming more territory than it lost in April. Analysis of frontline positions shows Russia suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometers (45 square miles) this month.
According to ISW, this figure accounts only for territory firmly held by each side, excluding the 'gray zone' where both have military positions. 'Russian forces have used partial penetration tactics to create a perception of continuous Russian advances along the entire front and to support Kremlin information-warfare efforts to exaggerate Russian successes,' ISW assessed, adding that Russia does not control these penetration areas.
ISW recorded that the pace of Russian advances has slowed by at least two-thirds over the past 18 months. In the first third of 2026, Russia captured an average of only 2.9 square kilometers per day, compared to 9.76 square kilometers in the same period of 2025.
Russian President Vladimir Putin prioritizes taking the remainder of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, which includes a 'fortress belt' of fortified cities such as Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstiantynivka and Druzhkivka. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii said Russian attacks there have 'increased noticeably' in April. Moscow claims to be gradually seizing Konstiantynivka, but ISW recorded that they 'penetrated 10.14% of the city of Kostiantynivka and advanced only 0.7% in the eastern suburbs.'
Ukraine also said Russian losses in April exceeded recruitment capacity for the fifth consecutive month. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated: 'In April, 35,203 Russian soldiers were eliminated or severely wounded.' President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously said Ukrainian intelligence obtained Russian documents reporting 62% casualties were fatalities. Fedorov also reported a sharp increase in Ukrainian long-range attacks, with attacks beyond 20 km in April double those of March and four times those of February.
Ukraine struck multiple oil refineries and petroleum facilities in the past week, aiming to deprive Russia of export revenue. Specifically, Ukraine hit the Tuapse oil refinery on the Black Sea for the fourth time in two weeks on May 1, and that same night struck the Perm refinery 1,000 km from the border. On May 2, Ukraine used unmanned boats to attack two Russian oil tankers near the port of Novorossiysk. That same night, President Zelenskyy said the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) attacked a missile carrier, a patrol vessel and an oil tanker at the port of Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, damaging the oil terminal as well. On May 5, Ukraine attacked the Kirishinefteorgsintez plant in the Leningrad region, shutting it down after three of four distillation towers were damaged.
Ukraine also targeted military equipment. Zelenskyy said Flamingo drones flew 1,500 km to attack a plant producing navigation modules for Russian navy, air force and missile forces at Cheboksary on May 5. Recently, Ukraine also struck multiple Su-57 fighter jets and Su-34 bombers at Shagol airfield in Chelyabinsk, more than 1,600 km from the border.
On the impact on oil revenues, the two sides offered conflicting figures. Zelenskyy claimed Russia has lost at least $7 billion since the start of the year due to attacks on the oil and refining industry. Bloomberg reported that Russia's average refinery throughput fell to 4.69 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2009. However, the Russian Finance Ministry said on May 6 that mineral extraction revenues doubled to $12 billion in April compared to March, with $10 billion from oil, thanks to higher oil prices. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov forecast May oil revenues would increase by another $2.7 billion. Fedorov warned Russia could earn an extra $150 million per day from high oil prices, equivalent to $40 billion in 2026. Independent Russian outlet Meduza wrote that Moscow will spend half of April's oil revenue on subsidies for oil and gas companies to keep gasoline prices low and modernize refineries, indicating Ukraine is still causing damage.
Ukraine also noted diplomatic progress with Slovakia and Hungary. Zelenskyy said on May 2 that he invited Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to visit Kyiv and received an invitation to Bratislava. Fico previously vetoed Ukraine's EU accession talks in June 2025 but relented in September. Former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban also vetoed those talks, and his successor Peter Magyar has not lifted the veto, announcing he would hold a referendum on the issue. Meanwhile, Magyar returned $82 million in cash and valuables to Ukraine's Oschadbank that Orban confiscated in March on suspicion of money laundering. Zelenskyy welcomed this as 'a constructive and civilized step.' However, a poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) showed 54% of Hungarians still oppose Ukraine joining the EU, and a majority oppose Hungary participating in financial aid or transporting weapons to Ukraine through Hungarian territory.
