Israel Weighs Response to Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Defense Pact

Israel has not yet issued an official response to the defense treaty signed in Mecca by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey—an agreement that some analysts say challenges Israel's regional expansion ambitions.

The joint Mecca defense treaty was signed by the three countries on Friday, with the most notable provision stating that “any armed attack against one of the three countries will be considered an attack against all.”

Analysts and internal officials suggest that Israeli leaders may use Saturday's quiet, when Israeli politicians typically observe the Sabbath, to assess the full impact of the new regional alliance.

Turkey has long been viewed by Israeli politicians across the political spectrum as a threat. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's remarks last month that Israel is “a burden that humanity cannot bear any longer” were condemned by Israeli politicians, including Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, as “incitement to genocide.” Turkey has been a vocal critic of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, where at least 72,000 Palestinians have been killed.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in June that Israel's incursions into Syria and Lebanon posed a direct threat to Ankara. “Turkey's security does not begin at Hatay but extends from Aleppo to Damascus and Beirut,” he said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by calling Erdogan a “Jew-hating dictator.”

Pakistan, which does not recognize Israel, has also drawn Israeli ire. In April, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif described Israel's attacks in Lebanon as “evil” and called the country “a curse for humanity.” The Israeli Prime Minister's Office accused a since-deleted social media post of being “a call for the destruction of Israel.”

Saudi Arabia, the country Israel is reportedly seeking to normalize relations with, is viewed with less concern by Israel. Both Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump have strongly pushed to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office described a potential nuclear deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel as a “historic leap for peace.” However, Riyadh has distanced itself from normalization since the Gaza war began in October 2023.

Netanyahu's strikes on more than six countries in the region since 2023, including the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, have had a major impact on Saudi Arabia, which has been repeatedly targeted by Iran under the pretext that it hosts U.S. troops.

According to Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College London, the experience of the current war reinforces an uncomfortable conclusion for Riyadh: U.S. military power remains indispensable, but the relationship with Washington does not guarantee immunity from attacks, and the U.S. may not act according to Saudi priorities. “Saudi Arabia wants strategic depth and more options,” he said.

More Than Just About Israel

Many view the Joint Mecca Defense Treaty, though newly announced, as long-rumored and a response to the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran amid major regional developments. Netanyahu himself pursues a “hexagonal alliance” comprising Israel, Greece, Cyprus, India, and other Arab, African, and Asian nations.

Although the Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish treaty is certainly shaped by these developments, it also stems from other considerations. Bregman, an analyst, argues the treaty reflects a lack of trust in the U.S. and Washington's readiness to defend its Middle Eastern allies. He sees it as a “hand-holding” to counter Iran rather than Israel, but from Israel's perspective, the main negative point is Turkey, which is emerging as a serious challenge, being part of the pact.

Turkey has been a convenient foil for Netanyahu for some time, especially as Israelis go to the polls in October to decide their next government. Netanyahu has conducted a series of interviews, phone calls, and statements in recent months to prevent the U.S. sale of F-35 fighter jets to Ankara. Analysts at Haaretz suggest Netanyahu may use Turkey as a “useful new strategic rival” to bolster his security credentials ahead of the general election, as he is running close behind rival Gadi Eizenkot in recent polls.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a critic of Netanyahu, called Turkey the “new Iran” in February and warned of Ankara establishing a “Sunni axis hostile to a nuclear Pakistan.” Bennett's supporters see the treaty announced on Friday as confirmation of his earlier security assessment, which could affect Israel's ability to operate in Lebanon, Syria, and Israel.

For now, the Turkish-Saudi-Pakistani security alliance is likely to be a central issue in the election campaign between Netanyahu and his rivals ahead of the October general elections. Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, predicts politicians may use the treaty to criticize Netanyahu, particularly Saudi Arabia's participation, as a diplomatic failure. For his part, Netanyahu may seek to downplay the issue, emphasizing the more important relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which he has personally cultivated.