Iran Signals Shift to Offensive Posture as US Memorandum Expires

Iran has officially entered a new phase in its conflict with the United States as the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) reached in June expired on Monday. Tehran officials indicated that Iranian forces could transition from defense to offense if necessary.

Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, head of the political bureau of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said on state television Sunday evening that his forces are ready to take all necessary actions to defend the country. "The enemy has started the war, and our efforts are defensive, although they may take on an offensive dimension," Javani said, adding that adversaries should prepare for "strategic surprises."

Earlier, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi identified US and regional ally infrastructure — including energy networks, power plants, and internet connectivity systems — as potential targets if the US strikes Iran's civilian infrastructure. Hardline Iranian politicians and media have also discussed the possibility of launching a ground campaign against US interests in Bahrain and Kuwait if Washington invades Iran, though analysts question the feasibility and risks of such a plan.

Iran's statements came after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power by appointing several veteran IRGC commanders to key military and security positions last week. Khamenei said the promotion of Major General Ahmad Vahidi to IRGC Commander-in-Chief should embody a combination of "maximum deterrence" with readiness for "powerful offensive operations against the enemy." Vahidi claimed that Khamenei's leadership and Iran's armed forces had "subdued the most heavily armed army in the history of the world" following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

Tensions escalated after US President Donald Trump declared that the Strait of Hormuz would "soon" be considered US territory. The White House later described the statement as a joke. However, Iran's Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Amir Hatami, responded by offering a $30,000 reward for any man who kills or captures a US soldier if they participate in a ground operation on Iranian territory. Women would receive double the reward for the same action.

Hatami also referenced Iran's recent attacks on US forces in Jordan, saying, "Our hands are open in reaching the aggressors, and they will open wider through our initiatives."

Mohsen Rezaee, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, suggested that the Trump administration may have considered a ground campaign into Iranian territory but postponed it due to a "half-baked plan." Rezaee said the US Central Command avoided striking Tehran or northern Iran during the two-week conflict in July, instead attacking about 50 cities across 15 provinces. He believes the purpose of the airstrikes was to prepare for a ground attack to control the Strait of Hormuz and access nuclear facilities in Isfahan, where highly enriched uranium is suspected to be buried under the rubble of US attacks.

According to Rezaee, bridges, roads, maritime control towers, radar, coastal structures, and military installations were struck to cut off supplies to southern Iran. He argued that the US miscalculated by assuming it could land forces with 40,000–50,000 troops, whereas in reality at least 100,000 would be needed to cross the Zagros Mountains and Fars province.

Iranian media and commanders in recent weeks have indicated that scenarios have been prepared to defend the southern islands and coastal areas that US forces might consider occupying, including key oil export ports on Kharg Island. Iranian territories around the Strait of Hormuz have been reinforced with rapid reaction forces. Military spokesman Mohammad-Reza Akraminia stated the goal is to prevent any foreign force from landing on Iranian soil.

The Iranian government has also expressed readiness to deal with unrest instigated by separatist groups near the western borders with Iraq and Turkey, or the eastern borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan. The IRGC is reported to have strengthened defenses and continued missile and drone attacks on armed groups based in Iraq's Kurdistan region.

Reacting to the MoU's expiration, Javani said the Strait of Hormuz will only fully reopen when Washington fulfills its commitments under the June agreement. Iran's Foreign Ministry noted that the two-month ceasefire window was not explicitly mentioned in the MoU text and dismissed any significance of its expiration for the war with the US or negotiations with Oman over Hormuz.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated: "It has been proven many times that the Islamic Republic of Iran does not formulate policy under pressure, ultimatums, or deadlines. We decide based on our assessment of what ensures our interests and national security." He said negotiations with Oman have not yet reached an agreement on partially reopening Hormuz due to legal and technical complexities, the involvement of multiple parties, and "ill-wishers" seeking to undermine the process.

Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called the MoU a "proud and victorious document in the field of diplomacy," emphasizing that the Islamic Republic has "triumphed" both politically and militarily in the war with the US and Israel. Ghalibaf said: "I do not mean that we destroyed their armies; I mean they attacked us while clearly and repeatedly declaring nine objectives but failed to achieve any of them. That is the greatest defeat for the US and the Zionist regime." However, Ghalibaf has yet to persuade Iran's leadership to agree on a long-term diplomatic solution with the US to end the war.