Are U.S. Prices Really Falling as Trump Claimed?
Andy Hirschfeld / Al Jazeera English
President Donald Trump claimed on social media that 'oil is flowing,' 'the stock market is booming, jobs are at record levels, and prices are coming down.' But real data shows a more mixed economic picture. While gas prices have eased from their peak, they remain well above pre-war levels, and inflation is running at 4.2% — the fastest in three years. Job growth has slowed sharply compared to the previous administration, and layoffs are rising.
U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that “oil is flowing,” “the stock market is booming, jobs are at record levels, and prices are coming down.” These statements come as the U.S. and Iran recently signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran.
Some of Trump's claims are accurate, but others are misleading. Below is an analysis from Al Jazeera.
Stock market at record levels?
This is true for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The index hit a record high of 51,999.67 points at Tuesday's close, driven by ceasefire hopes and the newly listed SpaceX stock gains. However, the Dow fell Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, closing at 51,494.99 points. The index later rose 0.35% in midday trading Thursday to 51,671 points.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 both declined. According to Michael Klein, professor of international economics at Tufts University, the stock market's rise does not reflect the experience of the 38% of Americans who do not invest in stocks. He stressed, “The stock market is not the economy.”
Are prices really falling?
Gas prices in the U.S. have begun to decline in recent days. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average price at the pump on Thursday was $3.99 per gallon (3.78 liters), down from a peak of $4.48 in May, but still far above the $2.98 per gallon on February 28, when the U.S. and Israel began their assault on Iran.
Experts say gas prices are unlikely to drop further for consumers, especially as U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to their lowest since 1983 and need replenishment, while transportation and production bottlenecks persist. Tammy Kulesa, product marketing director at Blue Yonder, noted, “Transportation costs, rerouting, insurance, and production do not return to normal immediately, so even if oil stabilizes, supply chain costs remain high.”
Professor Mark Jones of Rice University in Texas predicts gas prices will not return to pre-war levels until the final quarter of 2027. “Even if everyone believes the ceasefire holds and there's no more danger through the Strait of Hormuz, oil tankers still take months to reach their destination and return,” he said.
U.S. consumer inflation is currently at 4.2%, the fastest increase in three years, pushing up prices for staple goods. Energy prices have climbed nearly 8% in just the past two months. Food prices rose 0.1% in May after a 0.7% increase in April, particularly for items like bread, cereal, non-alcoholic beverages, and vegetables.
“People are facing high prices, while wages are not keeping up. Real purchasing power has declined,” Professor Klein said. In response, Kroger, the largest supermarket chain in the U.S., has announced price cuts on thousands of products nationwide to compete with Costco and Walmart.
Jobs at records?
Data shows the U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May. The highest figure under Trump's second term was 214,000 jobs in March. Compared to his predecessor Joe Biden, an average of 300,000 jobs were created per month, with July 2021 seeing 943,000 new jobs, albeit driven by post-pandemic recovery.
Under Trump, job growth has been narrowly concentrated in a few sectors such as healthcare. The 2025 monthly average was only 15,000 new jobs. In February 2026, the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs. Layoffs are also increasing: the number of job cuts rose 16% from April to May, the highest since May 2020, with artificial intelligence (AI) being a major cause. About 97,000 people lost their jobs in May.
Is oil flowing?
According to Vice President JD Vance, 12.5 million barrels of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily – a waterway that carries about one-fifth of the world's oil. However, data from analytics firm Kpler shows vessel transits through the strait remain low, with only six confirmed passages on June 17.
As the strait began to reopen, oil prices fell to their lowest since war began. Brent crude futures dropped $0.78 (1%) to $76.51 a barrel in midday trading. LNG shipments have also increased, with one QatarEnergy tanker returning to Ras Laffan to load more than 209,000 cubic meters.
