Ethiopia Drone Strikes Target Eritrean Forces Crossing into Tigray

Eritrean forces crossing the southern border into Ethiopia's Tigray region on Wednesday were targeted by Ethiopian government drone strikes that evening and Thursday morning, according to the conflict monitoring group Acled. The incident heightens the risk that Ethiopia's renewed internal conflict could ignite a full-scale war between the two neighboring countries.

According to civilian witnesses, a militia commander and Acled, military vehicles carrying Eritrean soldiers crossed Eritrea's southern border into Tigray and advanced toward the town of Adigrat, about 40 km to the south. Acled said the Eritrean forces were subsequently hit by Ethiopian government drones on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.

Eritrea has a long-standing enmity with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the force that launched attacks against the Ethiopian government on September 23. That hostility, however, has been set aside by Eritrea's desire to prevent the risk of an Ethiopian invasion to secure access to the Red Sea.

Over the past two weeks, the TPLF and six other armed groups within Ethiopian territory have been fighting the government in Tigray and the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar. Ethiopian forces have pushed the groups back, and an allied militia known as the Tigray Peace Force took control of Tigray's capital, Mekelle, on October 4 after the TPLF withdrew from the city.

Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel said: "We have no task to refute allegations or tall tales." He neither confirmed nor denied the presence of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement Monday: "Ethiopia is ready to defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity and core national interests, and calls on all parties in the region to resolve common challenges through constructive dialogue, cooperation and adherence to the principle of good neighborliness rather than confrontation and a winner-take-all approach."

The TPLF and the Ethiopian government fought a devastating civil war from 2020 to 2022. By British government estimates, roughly 300,000 to 800,000 civilians were killed. Both sides and their allies have been accused of war crimes.

Eritrea intervened in that conflict as an ally of Ethiopia after the two countries normalized relations in 2018 — a move that earned Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize.

Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 and has a long-standing enmity with the TPLF, which held power in Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018. The two countries fought a war from 1998 to 2000.

Relations between the two countries have deteriorated again in recent years. Prime Minister Abiy has said Ethiopia needs access to the Red Sea, while state media assert the country has a historical right to Eritrea's port of Assab. The U.S. conflict with Iran — which has led Iran to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — has further increased the importance of Red Sea access.

In its Monday statement, Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry stressed: "Any serious discussion of regional maritime issues and security architecture must take into account Ethiopia's legitimate interests and its long-standing connection to the Red Sea."

Eritrean Information Minister Gebremeskel, in a post on X on Wednesday, accused Ethiopia of "relentlessly beating the drums of war and openly declaring… it will launch a war of invasion against Eritrea to seize what they call 'sovereign access to the sea'… In recent weeks, they have tried to repackage this war agenda under the guise of 'self-defense' by manufacturing various accusations against Eritrea."

Magnus Taylor, deputy Horn of Africa director at the Crisis Group think tank, said: "The biggest concern is that [Prime Minister Abiy] may try to solve everything at once, by invading Eritrea — possibly a regime-change move and also a land grab to secure a Red Sea port — while settling the issue with Tigray. That is a very ambitious military agenda."

While the full impact of the ongoing fighting on Tigray's civilians remains unclear, there have been reports of the TPLF forcibly recruiting boys as young as 15 to fight.

"Civilians in these three regions [Tigray, Amhara and Afar] have not yet recovered from the first round of violence that was ended by the [2022] peace agreement," said Jalale Getachew Birru, an Ethiopia analyst at Acled. "They had only recently begun to recover."

The Associated Press contributed to this article.