Oil flow through Hormuz nearly triples during US-Iran MoU, data shows

Oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz nearly tripled during the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), but remained well below pre-war levels, according to tanker tracking data.

About 374 million barrels of oil left the Gulf during the 60-day MoU, roughly 6.1 million barrels per day, according to a report by commercial intelligence firm Kpler released Wednesday.

In the period from April until the MoU was signed on June 17, an average of 2.3 million barrels per day were exported through the Gulf, Kpler said.

The MoU significantly boosted oil flows, but volumes reached only about 40% of the roughly 15 million barrels per day that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, according to Kpler.

More than half of the shipments occurred in the first three weeks of the deal, and "toward the end of the period, flows were thinner, gloomier, and oil was piling up behind the chokepoint," said Emmanuel Belostrino, head of Global Crude Market Data and Geopolitics at Kpler.

The MoU, announced on June 17 after a series of diplomatic efforts largely mediated by Pakistan, expired on Monday without a peace deal amid stalled talks between Washington and Tehran.

The expiry of the MoU, which US and Iranian officials viewed as a step toward ending the war permanently, comes as attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz continue to cast a shadow over one of the most critical chokepoints in the global energy supply chain.

Five commercial vessels have been attacked in the strait in the past week, according to the UKMTO, including a cargo ship that reported being hit by an unknown projectile near Oman on Tuesday, killing a sailor.

The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (INTERCARGO) confirmed the deceased sailor was a crew member aboard the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity.

"Behind every vessel caught up in conflict are the seafarers – civilians carrying out professional duties, far from home and family, who keep global trade running," INTERCARGO said in a statement. "INTERCARGO reiterates its fundamental stance: seafarers are civilians and must never be targeted or become collateral victims of geopolitical conflicts."

No government or group has claimed responsibility for the attack, the first confirmed casualty since July.

At least 18 seafarers have been killed in attacks on commercial vessels in the region since the US and Israel launched war on Iran in late February, according to the International Maritime Organization.

Iranian forces have claimed responsibility, or been blamed for, dozens of attacks on commercial ships since the war began.

US forces have confirmed responsibility for about half a dozen attacks, including a June 10 airstrike on a Palau-flagged tanker that killed three Indian sailors.

The critical strait, which transited about one-fifth of global oil supply before the war, saw 73 vessel transits during August 10-16, down from 91 the previous week, according to preliminary data from Lloyd's List Intelligence.

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, with Brent futures up about 0.3% to $91.93 a barrel at 06:00 GMT.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at Australia-based KCM Trade, said markets expect oil flows to continue declining amid the Washington-Tehran impasse. "The market isn't buying the more optimistic view from the US administration about security of passage through the strait," Waterer told Al Jazeera. "Until there's clear evidence of sustained safe transit and a more durable diplomatic framework, operator confidence may remain low and shipping volumes may struggle to recover meaningfully."