Davutoglu exits politics: Turkey's diplomatic architect and Erdogan's shadow

Ahmet Davutoglu, once one of the most powerful figures in Turkey, has officially withdrawn from party politics. The announcement came after the Future Party he founded declared it was ceasing political activities. Davutoglu described the decision not as a surrender but as an effort to distance himself from what he called Turkey's "polluted political atmosphere."

Davutoglu, 67, was a scholar, foreign policy architect, served as foreign minister and prime minister, and was chosen by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to lead the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party). He later became one of the most vocal critics of the political system he helped build.

From professor to foreign minister

Born in 1959 in Taskent, Konya province, Davutoglu studied economics and political science at Bogazici University before becoming an academic. He taught in Malaysia and at several Turkish universities, earning the nickname "Hoca" (professor) from students—a title that followed him into politics.

Davutoglu is best known for his "strategic depth" doctrine, arguing that Turkey's geography, Ottoman history, and ties with the Balkans, Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia could transform it into a central diplomatic power rather than a country on Europe's periphery.

After the AK Party came to power in 2002, he became Erdogan's chief foreign policy adviser, was appointed foreign minister in 2009, and entered parliament in 2011. The early years of his tenure saw Turkish influence expand: Ankara opened new embassies, increased its presence in Africa and the Middle East, mediated regional disputes, and promoted trade and visa-free travel with neighbors. This policy was dubbed "zero problems with neighbors."

Analyst Tarik Celenk said Davutoglu changed Turkey's diplomatic culture. "Davutoglu brought a shift in mindset to the diplomatic community," he said, adding that Davutoglu opened diplomacy to business and civil society. He also maintained good relations with Hamas, Russia, and the United States. Davutoglu called this approach "rhythmic diplomacy"—an effort to sustain dialogue among competing regional and global power centers.

However, the Arab uprisings, especially the Syrian war, exposed the limits of this vision. Turkey backed the Syrian opposition and predicted President Bashar al-Assad's government would soon fall. Instead, the conflict brought mass migration, security threats, and prolonged instability. Celenk argued that "the main mistake in foreign policy was that he was too emotional, too romantic," making it difficult to distinguish between "idealism, romanticism, and realism."

The successor chosen by Erdogan

When Erdogan moved from prime minister to president in 2014, he chose Davutoglu to succeed him as AK Party leader and prime minister. The arrangement contained a fundamental contradiction: under the parliamentary system at the time, Davutoglu formally headed the government, but Erdogan continued to dominate the ruling party and exercise power from the presidency while pushing for a presidential system.

Davutoglu led the AK Party through two elections in 2015. After losing its parliamentary majority in June, the party regained it in November with nearly half the national vote. However, the victory did not give Davutoglu an independent power base. According to Celenk, Davutoglu entered politics with a vision of a forest without "wolves, foxes, jackals, or snakes," but as prime minister he realized "that forest does not exist."

Disagreements over appointments, governance, and Erdogan's efforts to expand presidential powers led Davutoglu to resign in 2016. He stayed in the AK Party for three more years before leaving to found the Future Party in 2019.

An opposition party without a base

The Future Party sought to attract conservative voters disillusioned with Erdogan, advocating parliamentary democracy, rule of law, and accountable government. Yet it never gained significant electoral support.

Political scientist Berk Esen argues that Turkish opposition parties face structural disadvantages because the ruling party has extensive access to state resources and most of the media. But Esen stressed those conditions do not fully explain the Future Party's failure. "The Future Party was stillborn from its inception," he said.

Davutoglu and Ali Babacan, another former senior AK Party official, founded two separate opposition parties, splitting an already limited conservative voter pool. Both struggled to confront the record of the governments they once served. In the 2023 elections, Future Party candidates ran for parliament on lists of the Republican People's Party (CHP), then the main opposition. The deal secured seats but revealed the party's dependence on a larger organization.

According to Esen, the pursuit of guaranteed representation prevented the Future Party from fielding candidates nationwide and building local networks. "To achieve small short-term successes, they lost the party's institutional identity in the medium term. That's why the party closed," he said. Celenk concurred: "One could say the Future Party was never a party of the future. It was stuck in the past."

However, Celenk distinguishes between Davutoglu the failed party leader and Davutoglu the intellectual. "Let us criticize Ahmet Davutoglu as a politician to the end," he said. "But the intellectual production capacity of Ahmet Davutoglu within the conservative community has been underestimated and not given due credit," Celenk stressed, referring to segments of Turkey's conservative and religious circles that benefited from Davutoglu's ideas without acknowledging his contribution.

Esen expressed doubt that Davutoglu could wield significant political influence while Erdogan remains in power. "But I think in practice, his political career seems to be over." Still, analysts find value in Davutoglu's explanations. Celenk said his four-page letter offers a serious diagnosis of "the state of the country, politics, and society," including the risk of Turkey "losing its national identity." Esen agreed that "Turkish politics has become very polluted and authoritarian," conceding some of Davutoglu's criticisms are justified.

Davutoglu leaves party politics without establishing the conservative democratic alternative he once promised. But some ideas and diplomatic practices he introduced have outlived his time in power, ensuring the debate over his legacy will last longer than the party he founded. "At least when Davutoglu leaves politics and withdraws from institutional politics, this should be remembered," Celenk said.