Home-Front Battles: How Six Months of Conflict Are Shaking the US, Israel, and Iran

Six months ago, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Tehran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several top Iranian officials. It was a goal long pursued by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who sought a joint assault with Washington. But today, the United States is mired in a war it can barely extricate itself from.

The initial war aims as declared by Washington appear unmet: President Donald Trump's claim that Iran's nuclear program was destroyed no longer holds. Netanyahu may have hoped the fall of Iran's government would boost his political standing, while in Iran, six months of war have failed to cure a struggling economy.

United States

The cost-of-living crisis was a central theme in Trump's attacks on the Biden administration during the 2024 election. Yet gasoline prices alone have surged 50 percent since war with Iran erupted on February 28. Trump's repeated insistence that a deal with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is imminent does little to reassure Republicans ahead of November's midterms.

Multiple polls show Trump's approval rating at record lows, with criticism aimed at both his foreign policy and domestic record. "The economic cost of the war is becoming a key issue for many," Shibley Telhami, a politics professor at the University of Maryland, told Al Jazeera.

Compounding pressure on Trump are reports he entered this unpopular war at Netanyahu's urging, while less than a third of Americans support the conflict, per a recent Ipsos poll. "There was a perception—certainly on the Democratic side, but initially even among young Republicans—that this was a war Israel dragged the US into," Telhami said.

In an attempt to pressure Iran into a more favorable deal, Trump last week imposed new sanctions on Tehran, calling them an "economic D-Day." But despite the damage sanctions inflict on Iran's economy, US diplomat and author Aaron David Miller notes the Iranian government remains standing. "Highly enriched uranium is still in the country and can be enriched further. Iran has also weaponized geography by closing the strait," he told Al Jazeera.

Miller argues that the failure of Trump and Netanyahu's military campaign in Iran could have lasting effects on US foreign policy. "No future administration will consider such a military campaign again."

Israel

Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst at King's College London, contends that Netanyahu is seen as having failed in Gaza, Lebanon, and now Iran. For many Israelis, the Iranian war is a major security blunder. "Netanyahu is trailing in the polls for good reason. Instead of focusing on stopping Iran from getting a bomb, he focused on regime change and persuading Trump to join. All failed, and Iran is now closer than ever to having a bomb," Bregman said.

The US decision to sign a memorandum of understanding with Iran without Israeli involvement in June gave Netanyahu's political rivals ample fodder. "I think Netanyahu hoped this would be an election game-changer," said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser. "The war didn't go as planned, so it hasn't generated that momentum."

The belief that Iran remains a fundamental threat to Israel, and that war has not diminished it, is widely held among Israelis. Levy suggests Netanyahu backed the "D-Day" economic measures not because he believes they will be decisive, but in hopes they will stoke Trump's frustration and revive an escalation agenda.

Iran

Though Iran's government remains in power, US sanctions and port blockades are battering its economy. According to Iranian calculations, the war cost the economy more than $145 billion as of April, with annual inflation hitting 66 percent in the preceding month alone. The US blockade alone may cause $435 million in daily losses.

"I don't want to downplay the impact of a weakened economy and inflation, but I sense these pains are still manageable," said Shervin Malekzade, an Iran scholar, speaking to Al Jazeera. Iran's political and military system is rooted in a "timeless mission to protect Iran's sovereignty and dignity before the world," which helps the country weather economic challenges.

Still, economic disagreements have surfaced within Iran's government, with open rifts between hardliners and moderates over the future of negotiations with the US. Regardless of internal political challenges brought on by the war, no belligerent can accept defeat. For Iran, the confrontation with the US and Israel has moved beyond establishing deterrence to a matter of survival.