The Iran War: Who Benefits the Most?

Nearly four months after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, driving up energy costs and disrupting global commerce, the two sides are now negotiating in Switzerland over a draft memorandum that would establish a 60-day ceasefire and a framework for talks on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and the future of the Strait of Hormuz. A lasting deal could ease the economic pain felt by businesses and consumers worldwide. Yet for some companies, the conflict has been enormously lucrative.

Defense contractors, oil-and-gas producers, and investment banks are among those seeing profits soar as war and instability roil global markets. So, who really benefits the most?

Energy companies

In absolute profit terms, no industry benefits as directly from war as the energy sector. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption of shipping through that narrow waterway sent crude prices soaring and triggered extreme volatility in global energy markets. At one point, Brent crude touched $126 per barrel—a four-year high—before retreating to the pre-war level of about $72 per barrel.

Higher prices generate enormous cash flows for some oil producers, who also gain from wider regional price differentials. Saudi Aramco's first-quarter profit jumped 25% year-on-year to $32.5 billion. The company leveraged its 1,200-km East-West pipeline to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining exports at full capacity of 7 million barrels per day and selling oil at higher prices.

British Petroleum (BP) posted first-quarter earnings of $3.2 billion, double the previous year and well above analysts' consensus estimate of $2.67 billion. Despite some facilities in Qatar being hit, Shell reported a profit of $6.9 billion in Q1, up from $5.6 billion a year earlier. TotalEnergies also recorded adjusted net income of $5.4 billion, even as 15% of its global output was halted in Qatar, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.

Research firm Rystad Energy analyzed the cash flow of major oil companies and found Saudi Aramco to be the biggest beneficiary of high prices. Thomas Liles, Rystad's senior vice president, told Al Jazeera: “Each participant will end up in a positive net position if high prices persist through the year. It’s just a question of how much cash flow they capture.”

U.S. LNG companies such as Venture Global and Cheniere Energy also benefit as buyers seek more secure supply sources. Liles said: “Most companies that don’t have a large concentration in the Middle East—like U.S. shale operators, Canadian oil sands, international oil companies, Latin American producers—have an opportunity. There are a lot of winners for different reasons.” However, analysts warn this bonanza could be temporary.

Defense contractors

Just days after the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran in late February, leaders of the world’s largest arms makers met at the White House and agreed to ramp up weapons production as U.S. munitions stockpiles ran low. Executives from RTX, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, L3Harris, and Honeywell attended the meeting. All of them are sitting on billions of dollars in orders, and those figures could grow as governments rush to replenish their arsenals.

Only weeks before the conflict erupted, U.S. President Donald Trump approved a $500 billion increase in defense spending. On March 19, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended a request for an additional $200 billion from Congress, declaring: “We need the money to kill bad guys.” Investors have already started betting on a prolonged boom. Boeing reported a 14% rise in revenue to $22.2 billion in the first three months of the year. Northrop Grumman holds a record $95.6 billion backlog of orders.

Experts say the war is cementing an already lucrative profit model. According to the Quincy Institute and Brown University, from 2020 to 2024, private companies received $2.4 trillion in contracts from the Pentagon, with one-third of that—$771 billion—going to just five firms: Lockheed Martin, RTX, Boeing, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman.

Shipping and insurance companies

The disruption created longer voyages and shipping congestion, taking nearly 7% of the global tanker fleet out of circulation, according to Kepler Cheuvreux. Freight rates on the Middle East-to-East Asia route jumped from about 100 Worldscale points to over 500. Specialist tanker operators like Frontline and DHT Holdings reaped huge gains. Frontline, the world’s fifth-largest tanker company, reported revenue of more than $536 million in Q1, while DHT achieved charter rates above $100,000 per day for some vessels.

The conflict also yielded profits for marine insurers. Immediately after the fighting erupted, war-risk insurance premiums for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz quintupled. Previously at 0.25% of vessel value, premiums surged to 1.5% and in some cases as high as 10%. For a $100 million tanker, a single transit of the Persian Gulf could cost up to $1.5 million in insurance.

Constantin Gurdgiev, professor of finance at the University of Northern Colorado, said: “As long as we don't see a significant increase in losses on civilian ships, short- and medium-term profits for war-risk insurers will rise. However, if the conflict spreads to civilian infrastructure, insurers could suffer major losses.”

Wall Street banks

War has also been good for Wall Street. The six largest U.S. investment banks—JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo—earned nearly $48 billion in profit in the first quarter of 2026. JPMorgan earned $16.5 billion, up 13% from a year earlier. Bank of America earned $8.6 billion, while Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo each posted more than $5 billion in quarterly earnings. The biggest revenue came from trading desks specializing in fixed income, currencies, and commodities (FICC).

Betting on prediction markets

The conflict has raised questions about suspiciously timed trades on prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. On March 23, $580 million in oil futures flooded the market—a ninefold spike above normal levels—about 16 minutes before Trump announced a pause in strikes on Iranian power plants. In April, at least 50 newly created accounts collectively earned hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire just before Trump announced it.

An analysis by Yale University of trading patterns found that suspicious accounts won nearly 70% of their bets in more than 200,000 flagged instances—a rate researchers say is virtually impossible without foreknowledge. Estimated profits from these trades amount to $143 million.