Colombia heads to first round of presidential election with two opposing policy camps

Colombians have begun casting ballots in the first round of a presidential election widely seen as a referendum on the policies of incumbent President Gustavo Petro. The vote comes ten years after Colombia signed a historic peace accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc) guerrilla group.

That deal once raised hopes of breaking the cycle of fighting between rebel groups and the government, but violence has surged back since then, peaking on the eve of the presidential election. Criminal gangs are increasingly using drone attacks and armed assaults to disrupt the race, and last June, 39-year-old presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay was shot dead at a political rally.

In a country where the struggle for peace has long been part of the political fabric, the question of how to address conflict is once again dividing the nation. There are 14 candidates on the ballot, but the election has essentially become a three-way race.

Senator and peacebuilder Iván Cepeda — an ally of Petro — leads the polls and has promised to continue Petro's “total peace” initiative, which aims to negotiate with the country’s remaining rebel groups and sign peace deals with them to resolve the enduring crisis.

While the peace plan has largely failed amid criminal groups exploiting ceasefires with the government, Cepeda and Petro still enjoy strong support from many due to progressive policies Petro has pushed, such as raising the minimum wage.

Cepeda’s rivals are Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, both of whom have vowed to crack down harder on armed groups. De la Espriella — a flamboyant lawyer known by the nickname “The Tiger” — has recently gained voter attention by presenting himself as an outsider who wants to apply the tough tactics used in El Salvador’s war on gangs, which dramatically reduced gang violence but sparked accusations of human rights abuses.

Valencia is seen as the political heir of former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe, who ruled from 2002 to 2010 with strong U.S. backing and whose administration defeated Farc rebels in a campaign that caused heavy civilian casualties. Both de la Espriella and Valencia have voiced support for Donald Trump, even as Trump has taken a harder line on Latin America than any U.S. president in decades, pressuring Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico to crack down more aggressively on criminal groups.

If no candidate wins at least 50% of the vote — an extremely rare occurrence in Colombia — the top two candidates will face off in a second round in June. Maria Eugenia, 57, a seamstress in the capital Bogotá, said she welcomes an all-out assault on the expanding criminal groups, regardless of the human cost. While praising Petro’s efforts to improve the country’s healthcare infrastructure, she said she is voting for de la Espriella because violence in rural areas has spiraled out of control.

Cristian Morales, 26, disagrees. He argues that although Petro's peace plan has failed in many ways, altering the plan to break the cycle of violence is still far better than swinging to the other extreme. He said he plans to vote for Cepeda, prioritizing the candidate’s push to protect Colombia’s biodiversity and expand access to education over bold promises to resolve the country’s deep-rooted conflict. “The solution to this conflict is not aggressive confrontation. It will only end in more bloodshed,” Morales said. “This is very difficult because there are only two options: dialogue or weapons, and an internal conflict benefits no one.”