Experts: New US Sanctions Reflect Stalemate with Iran
Umar Farooq
Analysts say Washington's new economic sanctions on Iran show its nearly six-month military campaign has failed to force Tehran to capitulate, and the measures are unlikely to change the calculations of Iran's leadership.
On August 24, the United States unveiled a new round of sanctions targeting Iran and numerous global entities doing business with the country, in a campaign US officials call an "economic D-Day," officially named "Operation Economic Outcast." The move aims to pressure Tehran to return to negotiations over its nuclear program and abandon its demands in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to analysts, the return to economic sanctions as a tool signals that the US military campaign against Iran, which has lasted nearly six months, has not achieved the swift results Washington had hoped for. Key ammunition stockpiles have been depleted, while many global power assets have had to be redirected to the Middle East.
"The US is returning to economic pressure because force has failed to deliver the quick victory expected," said Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, a US-based think tank. "The 'economic D-Day' declaration underscores the failure of the war to force Iran to surrender or achieve Washington's political objectives."
Stalemate on the Battlefield
Despite eliminating many senior Iranian political and military officials, Tehran has leveraged its geographic advantages and stockpiles of drones and missiles to strike key oil facilities in the region. Iran's tightening of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has driven US gasoline prices up roughly 40% compared with before the war.
"That was Trump's fundamental miscalculation from the start—believing that threatening war would force Iran to capitulate," said Trita Parsi, head of the Quincy Institute in Washington. "Instead, they resisted, and resisted very strongly."
US supplies of interceptor missiles have dwindled significantly. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated in late July that the Pentagon would need at least three years to rebuild its stockpiles to pre-war levels. Although the White House has denied this, experts say the issue is real, and the Pentagon has been forced to shift resources from other theaters, such as countering China, to the Middle East.
The aircraft carrier USS George Washington was dispatched from Japan to the Gulf to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, whose crew had been deployed months longer than planned. Key military bases in the region, including the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, have been damaged or rendered unsafe, forcing warships to resupply from distant locations such as Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Retired General Barry R. McCaffrey remarked: "In my assessment, the US Armed Forces may have permanently lost access to 15 bases in the Persian Gulf."
Sanctions Without Targeting China
The US Treasury has sanctioned 60 new individuals and entities worldwide for dealings with Iran, but has not included major Chinese banks or entities that help Tehran sell oil. About 90% of Iran's crude oil exports are sold to China, providing Tehran with tens of billions of dollars annually.
When asked why he did not immediately sanction Chinese entities involved in supporting oil trade, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent replied: "Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?"
"To me, this is more of a psychological campaign than a real war," said Sina Azodi, an assistant professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University. "It will have an impact, certainly, but I don't think it will change Iran's calculations in the short term."
Burden on the People
The new sanctions extend to areas such as digital assets, gold, technology, aviation, and shipping. These were previously used by ordinary Iranians to circumvent earlier sanctions—gold to preserve wealth as the rial depreciates, cryptocurrency for cross-border transfers, and aviation for visiting relatives.
"Sanctions will cause pain for the Iranian people, but translating that pain into policy change is a completely different matter," said Parsi of the Quincy Institute, emphasizing that Iran tends to escalate rather than surrender when cornered.
Experience from Trump's first term in 2019 shows that economic pressure measures once prompted Iran-backed Houthi forces to attack oil tankers in the Gulf and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
"This shows the limits of the war: Washington can keep raising the costs for Iran, but it has yet to force Tehran to change course," Mortazavi stressed.
In this context, the prolonged conflict has driven President Trump's approval ratings to record lows. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, only 31% of Americans support the war in Iran, and 33% approve of the president's performance. With midterm elections just months away, Iranian leaders anticipate that the Trump administration will have little room for further escalation.
"Iran is likely to seek to endure, absorb the pain, until the Trump administration makes a better offer," Azodi predicted.
