Khartoum, Sudan – A wave of drone attacks targeting el-Obeid, combined with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) tightening their encirclement, has turned the capital of North Kordofan State into a new flashpoint in Sudan's over-year-long war of attrition.
Despite repeated international warnings and U.S.-backed ceasefire initiatives, Sudan's two rival generals remain locked in a stalemate. Both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF show no signs of concession, bolstered by external arms supplies. Analysts say the conflict has devolved into a proxy war, with each side receiving support from regional powers.
Strategic Target and International Warnings
El-Obeid lies 550 kilometers southwest of Khartoum, serving as a gateway linking the capital to the vast Darfur region. The city is also a key military base, hosting the SAF's 5th Infantry Division. It now shelters hundreds of thousands of people displaced from conflict zones.
The threat of a large-scale ground assault has prompted 38 international NGOs, the United Nations, and nations including Qatar to warn against the use of drones and the risk of mass atrocities. They fear el-Obeid could suffer the same fate as el-Fasher.
Conflicting Narratives from Both Sides
Recent U.S. diplomatic efforts, led by envoy Massad Boulos, have pushed for a comprehensive ceasefire. However, deep polarization within Sudan has stalled the peace process. SAF commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has vowed to act with the precision of "uprooting a needle" until the RSF is fully dismantled.
Sudanese researcher Fathi Abu Ammar blames the SAF as the main culprit, accusing it of obstructing peace initiatives and preventing the establishment of humanitarian corridors for civilians to leave el-Obeid. He alleges the army is using civilians as "human shields" to exert international pressure.
In contrast, political analyst Yousef Abdel Mannan dismisses these claims. He says the RSF is responsible for drone attacks on a girls' school in el-Obeid and the massacre of thousands of civilians in el-Fasher. Abdel Mannan views U.S. ceasefire proposals as temporary fixes that fail to address the root causes of the conflict.
Foreign Weapons and a Proxy War
David Shinn, former U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, observes that while Washington has imposed sanctions on leaders of both sides, neither truly wants to end the fighting. The increasing use of drones underscores external backing. "Neither the RSF nor the Sudanese army produces drones. They must be imported," Shinn says.
He notes that the UAE supports the RSF, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia back the SAF. The war has become a proxy conflict. "Only when the international community forces external actors to stop military support will Sudan escape a war that the generals believe they can win," Shinn warns.
