Ukraine's 40-Day Campaign Fails to Bring War Closer to an End

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's 40-day campaign to “inflict influence” and force Russia to end the war ended last week with little to show for it. The campaign, marked by intense long-range missile strikes, aimed to persuade Moscow to accept Kyiv's terms. However, it appears to have fallen short of its desired effect, as Russian President Vladimir Putin remains unwilling to make concessions.

After yet another failed escalation, Kyiv faces the same difficult choice: continue the war and suffer catastrophic destruction, or negotiate peace largely on Putin's terms.

The Russian president is demonstrating the same ruthless consistency that has characterized Moscow's approach to the conflict from the start. The longer Ukraine resists, the greater the damage. Any escalation that visibly harms Russia is met with an even stronger response.

That is precisely what happened with Zelensky's campaign. Ukrainian missiles and drones struck Russian oil refineries, causing a severe fuel crisis in Russia and acute shortages in Russian-controlled Crimea. Recently, Ukrainian forces shifted focus to the logistics hubs of Russian e-commerce platform Wildberries, hoping to destabilize a range of related businesses and, by extension, the banking sector.

These attacks did not yield the desired outcome of political unrest and anti-war protests. Moscow managed to ease the fuel crisis in recent weeks and bolster air defenses at critical infrastructure sites. Wildberries is adapting by relocating its logistics centers to neighboring Kazakhstan, a member of the Russian-led customs union.

In response to Ukraine's “influence” campaign, the Russian military launched fierce strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, forcing the closure of its Black Sea ports. This severely impacts companies handling Ukraine's two main exports: grain and ore.

Russia has also conducted indiscriminate attacks on logistics centers of major Ukrainian retailers such as Epicentr and Rozetka, nearly wiping out the businesses of their politically influential owners. The Russian military has also targeted Ukrainian gas stations and even fuel tankers.

Meanwhile, the Russian offensive on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk conurbation in the north of Donetsk province in eastern Ukraine continues. Russian troops are also building a so-called “security belt” by seizing parts of Ukrainian territory along the Russia-Ukraine border in the north.

Ukraine's escalation, announced just before the NATO summit in Ankara in July, along with an accompanying media campaign claiming it was “turning the tide,” was aimed at influencing US President Donald Trump on the Ukraine issue. At Ankara, it seemed like a success.

However, Trump's subsequent statements suggest he has not changed his stance. He even revoked his promise to license the production of Patriot missiles for Ukraine. A “tough sanctions” bill targeting Russia passed the US Senate but faces an uncertain future in the House of Representatives. Even if signed into law, it remains uncertain whether it could shift the war's course in Ukraine's favor.

In the meantime, Ukraine is struggling to defend itself. Trump's war against Iran has largely stripped Ukraine's Patriot air-defense systems of missiles, leaving nearly every Russian missile to hit its target in recent waves of attacks on Kyiv and other cities.

This means Ukraine is likely to face its harshest winter since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. Ukrainian officials fear that, beyond further destruction of energy infrastructure, Russia will target sewage and water supply systems, making Ukrainian cities uninhabitable.

With such a grim outlook ahead, painful compromises at the negotiating table are once again emerging as Ukraine's only escape from national catastrophe. Despite defiant statements, Zelensky may be moving in that direction.

During a cabinet reshuffle in the midst of the 40-day campaign, he dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who oversaw medium- and long-range strikes on Russia. The Ukrainian president then came under pressure from his closest Western allies and their supporters in Ukraine to reinstate Fedorov, who attempted to organize nationwide protests against the decision.

In a less publicized move, Zelensky also dismissed Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Taras Kachka. Months before his dismissal, Kachka and EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos had drafted a 10-point reform plan to combat corruption and improve the rule of law in Ukraine.

Some reforms in that plan would severely limit the president's ability to control law enforcement agencies, particularly in anti-corruption investigations. Ukraine's parliament, controlled by Zelensky, has refused to pass these laws, not least because they could endanger the president, whose inner circle has been under major anti-corruption investigation since last autumn.

Risking the displeasure of the EU, Ukraine's main donor, is a dubious proposition in wartime. But if Zelensky decides to seek peace with Putin, he will need to eliminate the risk of impeachment and maintain a Russian-style security order to prevent any backlash against the inevitably unpalatable terms of reconciliation.

He may feel emboldened by the rather weak public reaction to Fedorov's dismissal – few Ukrainians are eager to revolt for a figure favored by Western media.

But Zelensky's personal risk of being seen as a scapegoat for failing to defeat Russian strategy remains high. Withdrawing from the war is truly a life-or-death decision for the Ukrainian leader, but continuing to fight for another year or two is hardly a brighter prospect.