Ethiopia Must Not Be Dragged Back into the Spiral of War

In October 2022, negotiating teams from the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) met in Pretoria, South Africa, to pursue peace. The meeting and talks took place as a devastating war was tearing the country apart. Initially, South African organizers took precautions to keep the two sides apart, fearing possible conflict. However, they were surprised by the swift establishment of a civil atmosphere.

Encouraged by the unexpected spirit of cooperation, mediators allowed the negotiators to meet face-to-face in smaller, less formal spaces, using their mother tongue instead of English. The talks lasted for days, sometimes stretching past midnight, with heated debates and moments on the brink of collapse. But through persistence and support from African statesmen, the negotiators achieved more breakthroughs than stalemates.

Although from opposing sides of the deadly conflict, they united in pursuit of peace, to end the bloodshed and stop the waste of a generation's potential. On 3 November 2022, the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF was signed, welcomed by Ethiopians from all walks of life.

However, some extremist elements within the TPLF and the Amhara Fano militia were not satisfied. Hardliners in the TPLF wanted a short-term ceasefire to regroup and continue the war, rather than a lasting peace deal. They see youth as 'cannon fodder' and are willing to sacrifice any cost for advantage. Similarly, extremist factions within Fano also opposed the agreement for different reasons, while the Eritrean government, under President Isaias Afwerki, openly criticized the Pretoria Agreement as a CIA plot.

For President Isaias, Ethiopia's internal conflict presented an opportunity. He wants to see Ethiopia weakened, divided, and easily manipulated. Eritrea has supported rebel groups against the Ethiopian state and courted hardliners in both the TPLF and Fano to maintain hostilities. Now, closely watched, this alliance—formed through secret meetings in Asmara, Mekelle, and Sudan—is poised to ignite a new conflict.

With direct support from the Eritrean government, the TPLF hardliner faction has violated the Pretoria Agreement by dissolving the regional interim administration, establishing an illegal administration, and recruiting and arming combat forces. They have sidelined proponents of peace. The people of Tigray have rejected the war agenda, but the TPLF, following Eritrea's script, is conducting forced conscription and turning Tigray into a 'dark liberation space.'

It is urgent that the international community pressures the TPLF and its sponsors in Asmara to prevent a relapse into conflict. A new conflict would have severe consequences for the region. The TPLF must not be allowed to gamble with the lives of thousands of young people. A clear message is needed that moves violating the Pretoria Agreement are unacceptable.

The Pretoria Agreement is not perfect, and its implementation leaves much to be desired, but it silenced the guns and brought a degree of normalcy to a war-torn region. The miscalculations of those indifferent to the death and suffering of an entire generation must not be allowed to drag Ethiopia back into the nightmare of war.