Iraqi Armed Groups Announce Disarmament: Will It Become Reality?

In his first address to Parliament as Prime Minister of Iraq, Ali al-Zaidi swiftly reaffirmed his commitment: “Reform the security apparatus by restricting weapons to the state and enhancing the capabilities of security forces.” This is not the first time an Iraqi prime minister has promised a monopoly on weapons, amid a landscape where self-defense armed groups, many backed by Iran, have flourished since the U.S.-led war in 2003.

Pressure from Washington to disarm these groups, coupled with economic challenges from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, has forced Prime Minister al-Zaidi to tighten control over armed factions—both to attract foreign investment and to avoid U.S. ire. Many groups have joined regional conflicts, launching missiles and drones at U.S. bases in Iraq and the Gulf.

Iraq's oil revenues have plummeted since the war erupted in late February and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a key oil export route. Before the war, Iraq exported about 3.3 million barrels per day, 90% via the Strait of Hormuz. In March, that figure dropped to around 600,000 barrels per day. Oil accounts for over 90% of Iraq's state budget.

“The economy and stability cannot thrive when weapons are beyond state control,” political analyst Mujashaa Altimimi told Al Jazeera. “Tackling this issue is now an economic necessity, not just a security one, for the prime minister.”

Al-Sadr Leads the Process

Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq's most powerful Shia leaders, immediately backed al-Zaidi when on May 27 he announced that the Saraya al-Salam group would split from his political movement and integrate its members into state armed forces. “Adhering to national interest and avoiding dangers threatening the country, we are obliged to declare the complete separation of Saraya al-Salam from the National Shia Movement so they fully integrate into the state under the supreme military command,” al-Sadr declared.

Al-Sadr also called on other armed groups—especially those linked to the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)—to follow suit. Some groups, such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq (designated a terrorist organization by the U.S.), have pledged to disband. Faleh al-Fayyad, head of the PMF, also announced a “complete separation” between the PMF and political factions, aiming to turn the PMF into “an organization under unified management and subordinate to the commander-in-chief of armed forces.”

However, other powerful groups, including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, have rejected handing over weapons to the state.

The Road Ahead Remains Murky

A prominent Shia figure, speaking anonymously to Al Jazeera, said groups that refuse will be marginalized, but the integration process requires caution. “A gradual dissolution of factions is better than confrontation, which could lead to bloodshed,” the figure said. “Those who refuse will find themselves isolated and realize their mistake.”

But even for groups that have agreed, questions remain about implementation and outcomes. Will groups that amassed military power over years actually surrender their weapons? What do they expect in return?

Al-Sadr himself “retired” from politics in 2022 after his supporters tried to storm Parliament. Despite boycotting elections, he renamed his movement the National Shia Movement, signaling he had not abandoned politics. “I think he wants to send a message that even if he's not on the political stage, he can still influence,” said Rahman al-Jebouri, Director of the Institute for Leadership and Governance. “This is a smart gesture.”

Al-Jebouri argued that al-Sadr understands the regional trend, under U.S. pressure, to disarm non-state forces—and that this may signal he is considering a political comeback. “It's hard to read his mind, but I believe he now has a solid foundation for a return.”

The next practical step in disbanding Iraq's armed groups remains unclear. Analysts say the process will be long, complex, and full of surprises. One solution under discussion is creating a new security ministry that merges forces like the PMF and Kurdish Peshmerga. “It's too early to be optimistic,” said Iraqi political analyst Hani Ashour. “Better to think realistically with a dose of cautious optimism. Let's wait and see how things unfold.”