Quad wobbles as US courts China, analysts say

A meeting of the foreign ministers of India, Japan, Australia and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in New Delhi on Tuesday was described by analysts as a 'damage control' effort as the Quad security dialogue wobbles amid the policy shifts of President Donald Trump's administration.

According to experts, the alliance has struggled since Trump began his second term in January 2025, as Washington reoriented priorities from the Asia-Pacific region toward the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East. The redeployment of U.S. fleet assets from Asia to the Middle East since the war with Iran and Israel in February, as well as the military operation 'Epic Fury' against Iran starting February 28, consumed more than half of key U.S. weapons stockpiles, prompting Asian allies to worry that Washington may no longer be able to defend them.

Moreover, the rapprochement between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, marked by trade deals and the first visit by a U.S. president to China in nearly a decade, has shaken Quad member states. Analyst Umi Ariga of the Japan Institute of International Affairs said the foreign ministers' meeting was 'essentially damage control.'

The Quad, established in 2007 and revived in 2017, was originally intended as a counterweight to China, but its cohesion has fluctuated with shifting U.S. priorities. A planned summit in New Delhi last year was canceled due to diplomatic tensions. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited Trump to a summit in June 2025, but after a year, the U.S. president has not yet visited and no clear timeline has been set.

Analyst Einar Tangen in Beijing said Rubio's trip to India showed Washington's anxiety. If the Quad were truly confident and strategically aligned, reassurance would be unnecessary. He said: 'From Beijing's perspective, Rubio's trip reveals Washington's underlying anxiety.'

Analysts also pointed out structural issues with the Quad: no formal treaty, no permanent secretariat, and no binding joint defense commitments. The absence of high-level leadership has robbed the bloc of strategic cohesion. Initiatives on vaccines, critical technology, and supply chains were deemed 'helpful at the margins, but cannot mask a lack of collective political will.'

The U.S. repositioning of forces away from Asia has further heightened concerns. Japan has responded by boosting its defense budget by 9.4% for fiscal year 2026, reaching 2% of GDP two years ahead of schedule, and tightening security partnerships with Australia, the Philippines and the UK through the GCAP fighter jet development program.

Meanwhile, China has assessed the Quad from a potential 'united anti-China alliance' to an uneven grouping held together mainly by fears of Beijing rather than deep internal unity. Beijing believes that India, Australia and Japan are recalibrating their positions amid Washington's instability.

The key question Tuesday's meeting could not resolve, analysts said, is whether the Quad still has a purpose when its leading member is seeking rapprochement with the power it was created to counter.