Black Sea Turbulence: Russian and Ukrainian Strikes Threaten Global Food Supply

Kyiv, Ukraine – Three unmanned surface boats, resembling oversized plastic toys, attacked a cargo ship moving slowly through the Black Sea off the coast of Bulgaria on October 28. Drones joined the assault, and explosions rocked the Liberia-flagged Contship Jet Monrovia, loaded with more than 400 terracotta-colored containers.

According to Bulgarian officials, the vessel, en route from Israel's Haifa port to Romania, listed and sank, but all 18 crew members were rescued. The daylight attack was recorded by crew members on other ships and photographed by a French surveillance aircraft.

Kyiv accuses Russia of deploying the unmanned boats and says the attack was meant to make the Black Sea unsafe for civilian vessels, crippling Ukraine's grain exports and further weakening an economy already devastated by war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that Kyiv's forces "conduct no operations in this part of the sea," and that "this latest tragedy involving a civilian vessel is one more part of Russia's effort to turn the western Black Sea into an area where movement is entirely impossible."

EU accuses Russia of "weaponizing hunger"

The European Union delegation in Kyiv said in August that Russia is "systematically strangling Ukraine's ability to feed the world." By targeting ports, shipping lanes and agricultural infrastructure, Moscow is not only waging war on Ukraine but also "weaponizing hunger against millions of people in Africa, Asia and the Middle East," the delegation said.

While Europe's own food security is not threatened, the EU is "fully committed to continuing to support Ukraine's access to international markets," Paula Ritter-Moschutz, a spokesperson for the European Commission covering agriculture and customs, told Al Jazeera. She said the EU "continuously assesses the impacts on agriculture, global food security and the economy," and backs initiatives for a moratorium on attacks in the Black Sea.

According to Bulgarian and Romanian officials and maritime tracking services, at least 30 crew members have been killed or reported missing in the recent surge in attacks.

A broken "gentlemen's agreement"

The campaign Moscow is accused of waging follows Ukrainian strikes on Russian cargo ships and tankers in the Black Sea and the adjacent Sea of Azov, alongside a rise in attacks on refineries, military facilities and depots. Those strikes intensified from July, and observers say the retaliatory attacks Russia is suspected of carrying out could have been prevented.

"A tacit agreement (not to attack each other's cargo ships) was broken by Ukraine in the summer," Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher analyzing the Russia-Ukraine war at Germany's University of Bremen, told Al Jazeera. He argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin "certainly likes the idea of completely destroying Ukraine's exports," and "issued several warnings before systematic attacks on the Odesa port cluster began."

In December, Putin said: "If attacks on (Russian) tankers continue, we will consider taking retaliatory measures against vessels of countries supporting Ukraine."

Russian farmers and grain exporters typically ship more than two-thirds of their harvest through the Black Sea. With security lacking, they are testing grain exports through the Arctic port of Murmansk, though the distance between farms and buyers will significantly raise costs.

Wheat prices climb

Before Russia launched its full-scale military campaign in 2022, about one-third of the world's exported grain passed through the Black Sea; Ukraine supplied one-tenth of globally exported wheat and 15 percent of corn. Ukraine's customers include countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

Over the past 12 months, wheat prices have risen by one-fifth. Chicago wheat futures, the global benchmark for the wheat market, climbed from $5.03 a bushel (35 liters) in October 2025 to $6.03 this October. The US-Israeli conflict with Iran, global warming and drought in southern Africa have also pushed prices higher.

Relentless Russian attacks with jet drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles have brought operations at Odesa, Ukraine's largest maritime hub, to a standstill.

"Now, after the Odesa ports were paralyzed, there is no way out. Only just over 50 percent of grain can be exported by road," Viktor Honcharenko, head of the Ukrainian Association of Farmers and Private Landowners, told Al Jazeera. "Much of the wheat is still in the fields, unharvested," he said, warning the consequences will set off a domino effect across Ukraine's entire economy.

"There will be farmers with no money, mid-sized businesses with no money, taxes barely paid, no money in the state budget, and jobs will be lost," Honcharenko said. According to him, the paralysis of seaborne grain shipments will hit small farmers hardest, since large industrial farms will be first in line to export grain by rail and truck.

According to Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch, Ukraine is harvesting up to 60 million tonnes of grain this year, but only half can leave the country. He argues that Ukraine's overloaded railway system cannot move larger volumes.

To make use of the surplus grain, Ukraine could expand domestic production of flour, starch, glue and paper-making additives. However, according to Kushch, the country has missed the chance to "start large-scale processing."

Ukraine could shift to growing pulses and oilseeds favored by the EU, whose member states protect domestic wheat farmers but are interested in vegetable oil and protein production. Even so, that would significantly reduce the profits of Ukrainian farmers, and Kushch argues this is the moment Zelenskyy's government should step in to negotiate EU subsidies for growing chickpeas and soybeans.

"The issue here is worth a billion euros," he said, referring to the estimated cost of the subsidy.