Colombia Presidential Election: A Crossroads Between Climate Protection and Fossil Fuel Extraction

Night falls in a quiet Caribbean neighborhood, where dozens of Colombian environmental activists sit on plastic chairs under mango trees beside a wall reading “Colombia, breathe!” They have gathered to hear Susana Muhamad, former environment minister and one of the world’s most respected voices on climate advocacy, speak ahead of the presidential election.

The May 2026 election is seen as a historic turning point: either Colombia continues as a global climate leader, embodying “people’s environmentalism,” or it shifts to supporting fossil fuel and mineral extraction—changing color from green to gray.

Incumbent President Gustavo Petro (Historic Pact) cannot run for a second consecutive term under the constitution, so his party has chosen Iván Cepeda as its candidate to carry on his policies. On the opposition side, far-right candidate Abelardo De La Espriella and center-right Paloma Valencia both enthusiastically support reopening oil taps and shale extraction via fracking.

U.S. interference is a major concern. President Donald Trump has spoken about the possibility of military intervention in Colombia. Muhamad warns: “We must win in the first round because Colombia’s future will be decided in this very complex international context. If we don’t win, our country will become just another Latin American nation following Donald Trump. Otherwise, everything we say will be completely suspended for four years. Goodbye.”

Muhamad highlights Colombia’s achievements: declaring the Colombian Amazon a fossil fuel-free zone, President Petro’s efforts to restrict mining, protecting people from pollution, and realizing its potential to become a “powerhouse for life.” She draws comparisons with Bolivia, where a pro-business government sold the Junín river basin to a lithium mining company, and Ecuador, where far-right President Daniel Noboa is attempting to weaken indigenous land defenders and open protected areas to mineral extraction.

Colombia plays a prominent role in the climate justice movement. Muhamad is a familiar face on the international stage, from the COP29 summit in Dubai as an advocate for transitioning away from fossil fuels to her role as president of the COP16 biodiversity conference in Cali. Vice President Francia Márquez won the Goldman Environmental Prize for her campaign against illegal gold mining. Environment Minister Irene Vélez Torres recently co-chaired the first conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Tzeporah Berman, founder of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, notes that the Petro government’s leadership has moved the issue of phasing out oil, gas, and coal from the margins to the center of global diplomacy. She says: “The impact of this election extends far beyond Colombia’s borders. Amid escalating climate disaster and geopolitical instability, the world is watching whether this leadership continues or whether political pressure from the fossil fuel industry succeeds in pushing countries backward.”

Domestically, the environment is rarely mentioned directly in debates but shapes hot-button issues like security and health. Drug trafficking often overlaps with illegal mining and deforestation; healthcare shortcomings are exposed by water pollution, rising temperatures, and floods. Political analyst Leon Valencia argues: “The environment has become a central issue. Both the left and right agree that the relationship with nature has become a strong political identity. Colombia is undergoing an environmentalization of public opinion.”

However, many activists complain that the Petro government talks more than it acts. Amazon deforestation has slowed under the Historic Pact but continues to increase; illegal gold mining remains widespread; many areas are effectively ungovernable due to armed group control. In Bogotá, corporate lobbyists in Congress have blocked the government’s most ambitious moves to restrict mining.

Julia Miranda, a New Liberal party congresswoman who supports nature protection, argues the Petro administration has been ineffective at home: “It’s the wrong discourse—just rhetoric while their environmental policies fail.” Although she supports candidate Valencia, Miranda believes a compromise on phasing out fossil fuels is possible: “Colombia needs to seriously work on energy transition, but for now it still needs to use resources, for example gas.” That could represent a step back and cause Colombia to withdraw commitments to the global alliance it helped establish in Santa Marta last month.

With two weeks until the May 31 election, the outcome is unclear. Polls show Cepeda leading in the first round but falling short of the 50% needed for an outright win. If a runoff is required, one of the two right-wing rivals could emerge as the front-runner. Biologist and congressman Renzo García warns: “That would be a terrible step back. A victory for Paloma Valencia or Abelardo de la Espriella would mark a return to the resource extraction model, handing the country over to the interests of the world’s elite and turning Colombia into a supplier of minerals, oil, and industrial agriculture without regard for the rights of nature.”