Texas Senate Primary: A Democratic Opportunity to Flip a Republican Stronghold?

Texas voters head to the polls Tuesday in the Republican primary for a U.S. Senate seat, where Attorney General Ken Paxton (backed by President Donald Trump) faces incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who has represented Texas since 2002. The winner will advance to the November general election to face Democratic candidate James Talarico.

Democrats have not won a statewide office in Texas since 1994, but races have grown increasingly competitive over the past decade. Paxton is widely seen as the more vulnerable Republican in the general election against Talarico.

Who are the candidates?

Ken Paxton (63) - Texas Attorney General, a longtime Trump ally known for lawsuits against big tech companies. He focuses on border security, pledges to complete the border wall with Mexico, cut taxes, and invest in cryptocurrency.

John Cornyn (74) - Houston native, former Texas Attorney General and Texas Supreme Court justice before entering the Senate. Despite Trump's criticism that Cornyn did not support him in "hard times," Cornyn has voted with Trump 99% of the time and aligns on immigration and border security.

Concerns about Paxton

Paxton's record is controversial: allegations of adultery, securities fraud, and support for the January 6 riot. Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said: "Ken Paxton is a perfect Democratic target in November."

State Representative Matt Shaheen (Republican) warned: "Paxton is the Democrats' best hope to turn Texas blue!" A poll suggests nominating Paxton could cost Republicans 5-8 points in other races, turning safe districts into potential swing seats.

November opponent: James Talarico

Talarico (37) - state representative, defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March primary with 52% of the vote. He has emerged as a left-leaning political voice, criticizing Christian nationalism. Policies include banning congressional stock trading, term limits for Congress, and a ban on presidential pardons. On foreign policy, he supports cutting weapons aid to Israel, maintaining support for the Iron Dome system, and a two-state solution.

An unusual race

Polls show Talarico tied with or ahead of both Republican candidates. A University of Texas survey shows Talarico leading Paxton by 8 points and Cornyn by 7 points. Texas Public Opinion Research finds Talarico ahead of Cornyn by 3 points and Paxton by 5 points.

Renee Cross of the University of Houston observed: "People are more dissatisfied with the direction of the country than in 2018... This could be a perfect storm for Democrats." Independent voters, who often lean Republican, could play a decisive role. One survey found 36% of independents support Talarico over Cornyn, 39% support Talarico over Paxton, but a large share remain undecided.

Talarico's campaign states: "The movement to take back Texas for working people transcends party politics—the biggest fight is not left versus right, but top versus bottom."