Florida Primary: Key Races to Watch

Voters in Florida will go to the polls on Tuesday to select the candidates who will represent their parties in crucial federal and state elections this November. This week's primary is the first in Florida to use newly drawn congressional districts, which were signed into law in May.

The state legislature, where Republicans hold a commanding majority, redrew the congressional map this year to favor conservative candidates. The redistricting is part of a broader effort by President Donald Trump to give Republicans an edge in the November midterms, as the party seeks to maintain control of Congress.

Here are the most important races to watch in Florida on Tuesday:

The governor's race

A crowded field of Republican candidates is vying to replace Governor Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited. Recent polls show Representative Byron Donalds leading, thanks to Trump's endorsement. If he wins in November, he would become the state's first Black governor.

Other contenders in the GOP primary include Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former state House Speaker Paul Renner, and controversial businessman James Fishback, who has faced accusations of racist views. DeSantis has not endorsed a successor.

In 2018, when DeSantis first ran for governor, Florida was considered a battleground state. He defeated Democratic challenger Andrew Gillum by less than half a percentage point. But by 2022, he won re-election by a landslide margin of 19 points, becoming the first Republican in 20 years to win Miami-Dade County, a former Democratic stronghold.

Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party, acknowledged that the party has "hit rock bottom" in recent years, but she and party leaders hope to reverse the trend in November. In Tuesday's primary, former Representative David Jolly is expected to secure the nomination; a former Republican turned independent, he now runs as a Democrat and appeals to moderate voters.

Randy Fine vs. Dan Bilzerian

Representative Randy Fine, a Trump ally elected to Congress last year, has become a symbol of anti-Islam rhetoric in American politics. The staunchly pro-Israel lawmaker has suggested that all Muslims should be "exterminated." Now he faces multiple challengers in the primary, most notably social media personality Daniel Bilzerian.

Bilzerian has made explicitly antisemitic comments. Last week, he released an AI-generated video calling Fine a "fat Jew" and positively referencing Adolf Hitler. Fifteen Jewish members of Congress issued a joint statement: "We disagree with Randy Fine on many, if not all, things, and have condemned his racist, Islamophobic remarks. But Daniel Bilzerian's disgusting antisemitic campaign video has no place in America." Despite this, Fine is predicted to overcome the challenges by a wide margin.

Special election to replace Senator Rubio

Tuesday also determines the nominees for the special election to complete the remaining two years of Senator Marco Rubio's term, after he resigned in early 2025 to become Secretary of State. Former Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, who was appointed to fill the seat, leads in the Republican primary.

On the Democratic side, Alexander Vindman – a former Army lieutenant colonel and National Security Council aide during Trump's first term – is the whistleblower whose complaint led to Trump's first impeachment in 2019. He is competing against progressive state legislator Angie Nixon.

A University of North Florida poll from late last month showed Moody's support fairly steady at 50% in a head-to-head matchup against any challenger. Nixon received 42% support, while Vindman got 40%. Pollsters call it a close race, noting that appointed senators often underperform compared to those who win direct elections.

Is a veteran Democratic congresswoman at risk?

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a former chair of the Democratic National Committee, faces a major challenge after her district was redrawn in the Republican-led redistricting effort. The 59-year-old now runs in the new 20th Congressional District in South Florida. Black voters make up a significant share of the new district, and some local leaders argue that Black representation is needed.

In Tuesday's primary, Wasserman Schultz faces several Black Democrats, including progressive educator Elijah Manley, 27, and former Broward County Mayor Dale Holness, 69. The race is seen as reflecting internal Democratic divisions as voters become more open to outsider progressive candidates. The winner of the primary is almost certain to win the November general election, as the district leans Democratic.

A conservative Democrat faces a challenge

In the Miami area, Representative Jared Moskowitz – one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress – faces a strong challenge from Oliver Larkin, a democratic socialist union organizer. Larkin calls Israel's war in Gaza a genocide, while Moskowitz is one of the most unapologetic pro-Israel voices among Democrats.

Recent polls show Moskowitz leading by only two points, at risk of becoming the latest incumbent to lose to an outsider progressive candidate. However, his district after redistricting now leans Republican, making Democratic prospects difficult in November. On the Republican side, businessman Dan Franzese leads among several candidates.

Is Trump's endorsement enough for a scandal-plagued congressman?

Representative Cory Mills, a top Trump ally, hopes to overcome a House Ethics Committee investigation that is weighing on his re-election campaign. He is running in the Republican primary in Florida's 7th Congressional District in central Florida. Mills has faced controversies: he was investigated by Washington DC police for an assault (not charged), and was accused by an ex-girlfriend of threatening to release explicit videos of her during their breakup.

Mills maintains his innocence and received Trump's endorsement in February. However, speculation is growing that Trump might be distancing himself, as he recently re-affirmed support for several Florida Republicans without mentioning Mills. Governor DeSantis announced on Friday he would not endorse Mills for re-election. If Mills defeats his three primary rivals, his seat could become a top Democratic target in November.