Bosnia and Herzegovina Election: A Nationalist Resurgence?

Bosnia and Herzegovina's general election produced few surprises in terms of voting trends, but several developments could shift the country's political atmosphere, according to analysts speaking to Al Jazeera.

Most voters on Sunday continued to follow ethnic lines, turning away from the idea of a civic society that had gained some momentum in the previous election, when the Bosniak centre-right Party of Democratic Action (SDA) stayed out of the state-level government.

That trend has long been a defining feature of Bosnia's Republika Srpska entity, where Milorad Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) once again won a sweeping victory over its rivals in Sunday's vote.

Voters in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina elected Darijana Filipovic, the candidate of the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH), to the state presidency; for the past eight years, that seat belonged to Zeljko Komsic of the Democratic Front, a civic-oriented party.

Sacir Filandra, a professor of political science at the University of Sarajevo, said the outcome fits a broader trend — the consolidation of conservative forces in an uncertain European environment marked by "walls going up" and fear.

"We are witnessing the consolidation of conservative views and the revival or unification of political right-wing forces as part of a general trend in Europe," Filandra told Al Jazeera. "In this time of crisis and transition, that trend has reached us too, which is why nationalist and conservative parties have become more prominent. The basis of this choice is insecurity, anxiety, uncertainty and, to some extent, fear, along with global developments in Europe."

A clearer picture of what comes next will only emerge once parties negotiate coalitions and form a government.

"In our society, political parties reflect long-standing divisions in society," Filandra said. "The situation is highly conservative, the status quo prevails, and politics has been reduced to the redistribution of power. It is unrealistic to expect encouraging breakthroughs in terms of political reconciliation," he added.

Changes in the presidency

During Komsic's years in the seat, the nationalist Croatian leadership headed by Dragan Covic complained that Croats were outvoted by Bosniaks, which allowed Komsic to win the seat twice in a row.

Under Bosnia's electoral system, the Croatian and Bosniak members of the state presidency are elected in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with all citizens, regardless of ethnicity, entitled to vote for any candidate. Over the past eight years, many Bosniaks have voted for Komsic, who ran for the Croatian seat.

It could be argued that Filipovic's victory is the most significant change.

The result means the only member of Bosnia and Herzegovina's tripartite presidency representing a declared multi-ethnic political orientation will be Denis Becirovic, a Bosniak from the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and its partners, who won a second term in the state presidency.

However, with Filipovic and Zeljka Cvijanovic, the candidate of Dodik's hardline nationalist Serb SNSD, both in the presidency, the national interests of Bosnia and Herzegovina's constituent peoples are likely to play a far greater role than over the past eight years.

Elections for the state and entity parliaments, as well as cantonal assemblies, also saw the SDA perform well — it was the leading party in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina by votes won — alongside the traditionally strong showings of the HDZ and SNSD. The HDZ won convincingly among Croat voters, while Dodik's party took the largest share of votes in both the entity and state parliamentary elections.

"A relaxation of Croat-Bosniak relations"

Over the past eight years, HDZ BiH leader Dragan Covic has warned of "danger to Croats," driven by Komsic's victories over HDZ candidates in elections to the state presidency.

These ballots could spell the end of the model Covic described, with the election of the Croatian member of the presidency.

Filipovic defeated Slaven Kovacevic, the candidate favoured by Komsic.

Covic publicly "thanked the Bosniaks" for the result.

The question now is how this change will affect Bosnia's political environment.

"A segment of the public in Bosnia and Herzegovina is unhappy with the result and sees this change as an opportunity to reduce tensions in Croat-Bosniak relations," historian and columnist Dragan Markovina told Al Jazeera. "I don't believe there will be any fundamental change, but at least the atmosphere among political parties… could become less tense."

Another notable feature of the election was low turnout. About 40 percent voted, down roughly 10 percentage points from four years earlier.

Some interpreted this as growing apathy.

Independent analyst Srecko Latal argued that new technologies also played a role, eliminating allegedly fraudulent ballots.

"Worries" for Bosnia's future

Markovina believes the election results point to the likelihood of a coalition and the emergence of a new conservative axis between the SDA, SNSD and HDZ, a scenario reminiscent of Bosnia's political past.

The dominance of the three conservative parties in post-war Bosnia has been tied to obstruction, political deadlock and nationalist narratives that have held back progressive processes.

With support for civic or multi-ethnic parties declining, the political balance is shifting.

"It would be fair to say that a coalition between the SDA, SNSD and HDZ is likely to form. Much of post-war Bosnian history has been spent with these parties in coalitions, and nothing improved, nor were any fundamental problems resolved," Markovina said, expressing little optimism about the future.

"Bosnia is going backwards," Markovina believes. "We are not the only ones with nationalist parties. There are more and more around us (in Europe), and that is what worries me most when I talk about Bosnia's future."