UK By-Election in Makerfield: Race That Could Reshape British Politics

The by-election held on Thursday (June 18) in Makerfield, northwest England, is drawing extraordinary political attention. The event will not only decide who becomes the new MP for the area but could also open the door for Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to mount a serious challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership of the Labour Party.

The by-election was triggered after incumbent MP Josh Simons resigned last month, clearing the seat for Burnham to run. Burnham has declared that if he wins, he will formally contest the Labour leadership, going head-to-head with Starmer, who is under intense pressure following Labour's heavy defeat in local council elections in May and the departure of two senior officials—Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns.

The main challenger is Robert Kenyon of Reform UK—a hard-right, anti-immigration party. Despite Kenyon's campaign being dogged by allegations of sexist and misogynistic social media posts, he remains tight in the polls. Reform came second in Makerfield in the 2024 general election and is seen as a genuine threat to Labour, which has held the seat since 1983.

Pressure on Prime Minister Starmer

Labour under Starmer won a landslide victory in the 2024 general election, but support for the party has plummeted over the past two years. Meanwhile, Reform UK has grown increasingly strong, especially in northern England—once a Labour stronghold. According to an Ipsos poll, Starmer is now the most unpopular Prime Minister since the survey began in the late 1970s.

Reform's rise is fueled by a hardline anti-immigration message, attracting both traditional Conservative voters and a segment of working-class voters who once backed Labour. Many disgruntled with Starmer's stance on Israel and welfare cuts have shifted to the Green Party.

Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, has emerged as a popular alternative among Labour members. He is not an MP and therefore could not previously contest the party leadership. Earlier attempts to run for the Gorton and Denton seat—where Labour lost to the Greens—were blocked, but this time the Labour National Executive Committee has not stood in his way.

Candidates and Campaigns

Andy Burnham (Labour): Known as the "King of the North" for his high-profile role as Manchester Mayor and national influence, he criticised the Conservative government during the COVID-19 pandemic and campaigned for justice for Hillsborough disaster victims. Burnham promises "Manchesterism"—a pro-business approach to attract investment while bringing essential services back under public control.

Robert Kenyon (Reform UK): Dubbed by the media as the "plucky plumber," Kenyon represents Reform, a party growing under the leadership of Nigel Farage—the architect of Brexit. However, his campaign has been overshadowed by allegations of sexist comments and COVID-19 conspiracy theories on social media.

Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain): A new hard-right party led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, which argues Reform has become too "mainstream" and not tough enough on immigration. Shepherd's candidacy could split the hard-right vote, indirectly benefiting Burnham.

Michael Winstanley (Conservative): A former mayor of Wigan, but the Conservatives are not expected to make a breakthrough—the party won no seats in Wigan in the May local elections.

Race Dynamics and Poll Results

According to the largest poll, conducted by Opinium for Forward Democracy, Burnham leads Kenyon 46% to 41% among likely voters. However, Shepherd (Restore Britain) takes 7%, potentially weakening Reform. The Conservatives stand at just 2%.

Significantly, when asked about voting intentions in a future general election, 42% of Makerfield residents back Reform, compared to 34% for Labour. This suggests Burnham's personal popularity is boosting Labour in this by-election, but the long-term trend favours Reform.

In the May local elections, Labour lost all eight council seats in Makerfield to Reform.

Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy, stressed that "tactical voting" could be decisive. "If you live in Makerfield and usually vote Green, Liberal Democrat, or any other party, and you don't want Reform UK to win, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can stop them."

Political commentator Aaron Bastani predicted Burnham would win but warned against underestimating Reform's rise. "I would be surprised if Burnham doesn't win. But if Reform ran a stronger candidate, things could be very different. If Farage somehow wins a seat like this against a figure of Burnham's stature, it would be one of the greatest political achievements of his career."