Northern Ethiopia: A Game of Shifting Alliances

During the 2020-2022 period, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) fought a bloody war against Ethiopia's federal government and its allies in Eritrea and the Amhara militia known as Fano. Less than four years later, the federal government is accusing those very same former allies of supporting the TPLF, redrawing the alliance map in northern Ethiopia. So, who is now facing off against the federal government in this new conflict?

TPLF: From Enemy to Target

In March 2025, fighters from the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), led by Debretsion Gebremichael, seized the regional radio station and mayor's office in Mekele, along with several towns along the Eritrean border. According to the African Center for Strategic Studies, these areas include parts of Sehartie district and the city of Adigrat, the region's second-largest population center.

The Center also noted that Eritrea still controls parts of Irob and Shiraro districts along the border, despite the peace agreement's requirement that all foreign forces withdraw from Ethiopian territory.

By October 2025, Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a letter to the United Nations, accused the TPLF and Eritrea of "financing, mobilizing, and directing" Fano forces that had advanced into the North Wollo area. The letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that this coordination "has become more apparent in recent months" and accused "hardliners within the front and the Eritrean government" of preparing for war against Ethiopia.

According to Ethiopia's Addis Standard newspaper, the letter also accused the two parties of supporting Fano's efforts to capture the city of Weldiya in the Amhara region in September, adding that TPLF leaders and fighters were directly involved in the campaign. Debretsion denied the accusations, calling them "fabricated stories and a smear campaign" aimed at diverting attention from what he called the federal government's failure to implement the peace agreement.

Fano: From Ally to Rift

Fano is a loose network of Amhara nationalist militias without a single central leader. It emerged in its current form during protests in Ethiopia's Amhara region in 2016.

The BBC describes Fano's trajectory as a shift "from alliance to rift." These militias once allied with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government against the TPLF, before rejecting disarmament efforts and saying they were protecting the Amhara people against what they called government abuses. The BBC also reported that Fano appears to be expanding its agenda toward overthrowing Abiy Ahmed's government and is carrying out increasingly deadly operations.

Eritrea: Open Confrontation

On February 3, the Ethiopian federal government for the first time acknowledged that Eritrean forces had been involved in the Tigray war, saying they were responsible for mass killings, destruction of homes, and looting of factories. The Associated Press reported that Eritrea's Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel dismissed the accusations, calling them "cheap and despicable lies."

Days later, Addis Ababa called on Eritrea to "withdraw its forces from Ethiopian territory." Asmara responded that the accusations were "untrue and blatantly fabricated" and "another episode in a pattern of hostile campaigns against Eritrea for over two years," adding that it had no desire for "a pointless argument that could further escalate the situation." Eritrea also accused Addis Ababa of seeking access to Eritrea's port of Assab, saying the two governments had cooperated against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 war before relations soured over the peace agreement from which Eritrea was excluded.

Regional Context

The International Crisis Group places these alliances in a broader regional context. They say that Abiy Ahmed is close to regional parties supporting Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in its war against the Sudanese army, while Eritrea is allied with the Sudanese army and has established ties with Egypt, an adversary of Addis Ababa over Nile River water disputes.

Fighting broke out in western Tigray earlier this week, with the Ethiopian government and the TPLF blaming each other for starting the clashes.