Armenia Election: Voters Choose Peace Over Nationalism

In Armenia’s parliamentary election on June 7, 2026, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won with 49.8% of the vote, enough to retain a majority of seats in parliament. The result was seen as a test of his handling of the aftermath of losing Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan in 2023 and his ability to steer the country away from Russian influence.

The victory came despite accusations of Russian interference in Armenia’s political scene, and according to analysts, it reflects the readiness of Armenian voters to embrace a new direction. “Many Armenians are willing to give Mr. Pashinyan’s new vision a chance: an Armenia less defined by conflict, more open to normalizing relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and increasingly focused on building a future within internationally recognized borders,” said Zaur Shiriyev, an expert at the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center.

Conflict Fatigue

The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh could have been a political disaster for Pashinyan, but voters granting him a second term shows they are ready to set aside the decades-long conflict. “Nationalism no longer resonates with the public, who are clearly tired of conflict and war,” said Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, though he acknowledged that losing Nagorno-Karabakh remains a “heart wound.”

According to him, Nagorno-Karabakh no longer appears in the government’s defense reforms or national security strategy—“the final affirmation of a new diversification strategy.” Peace efforts, including a deal Pashinyan signed with Azerbaijan at the White House in August 2025 to end a war that escalated in the late 1980s, became a focus of his election campaign.

Nationalism Sidelined

The election result also showed that the nationalist rhetoric of the opposition failed to convince a majority of voters. The two main opposition forces—Strong Armenia and Armenia Alliance—won a combined 41 seats in the 105-seat parliament, while the ruling party took 64 seats. However, Giragosian warned against overestimating the opposition’s strength, as the two parties are unlikely to cooperate due to conflicts between their leaders—Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan (Strong Armenia, 29 seats) and former President Robert Kocharian (Armenia Alliance, 12 seats). “Divisions and disagreements within the opposition will be a major obstacle,” he said.

Still, according to Svante Cornell, director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), the persistence of pro-Russian, nationalist sentiment in Armenia should not be underestimated. The Armenian government in the three decades before 2020 promoted nationalist identity, and “expecting such views to disappear is unrealistic.”

Russian Influence Waning but Not Gone

Analysts say Russia’s influence in Armenia has significantly weakened. “Moscow still has tools in Armenia, but no longer the same authority,” Shiriyev said. “In today’s Armenian politics, being seen as Russia’s preferred candidate can turn voters against you as much as support you.” As Armenia pushes back against the “gravitational pull” of the “Russian orbit,” opportunities have opened up due to Moscow’s focus on the war in Ukraine and renewed openness from Western partners.

However, Benyamin Poghosyan, an expert at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), argued that more important foreign policy drivers come from regional countries: future relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and the impact of the conflict in Iran. He also warned that Moscow still holds major economic leverage over Yerevan. Russia is a key export destination for Armenian agricultural products and wine, a major source of wheat, and provides cheap gas. “Russia has the capacity to inflict serious economic harm, so Yerevan must be cautious to protect core interests without severing ties with Moscow entirely,” he said.

Constitutional Hurdle

While Pashinyan’s re-election strengthens his position in the peace process, one major obstacle remains: Azerbaijan’s demand for amending Armenia’s constitution to ensure no future government revives claims related to Nagorno-Karabakh. Pashinyan lacks the two-thirds majority needed to easily hold a referendum. “This election is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the peace process to advance,” Cornell remarked.

On regional normalization, the outlook has improved. Since the bilateral peace treaty in Washington in August 2025, Azerbaijan lifted restrictions on trade and transit with Armenia and resumed border delimitation talks—moves that Giragosian said have opened the door for Armenia-Turkey normalization. “For Armenia, the West can open paths, Russia is increasingly an obstacle, and normalization with Azerbaijan and Turkey is the real prize,” Shiriyev concluded.