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Oil flows from the Gulf have rebounded to more than 81% of pre-war levels even as tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. Analysts say the recovery depends on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and ship-to-ship transfers, and could collapse if attacks on vessels, shipping lanes or pipelines resume.
Preliminary Kpler data shows Middle East crude exports topped pre-war levels on four of the last seven days of September, even as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate. An IRGC commander claims only 3-4 million bpd are now transiting the route, which he called "insignificant," while Iran says the strait will stay closed until Washington accepts its reopening plan.
US President Donald Trump has threatened 'devastating economic consequences' for any country trading with Iran, but experts question the feasibility of enforcement. Iran has dismissed the threats as distractions, while key partners like China and Turkey have continued trade despite US sanctions.
