Crude oil exports from the Middle East surpassed pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, according to preliminary data from ship-tracking firm Kpler.
However, in a television interview on Sunday evening, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi said only 3-4 million barrels per day (bpd) are currently moving through the route, calling that figure "insignificant" compared with pre-war flows.
Fadavi said that for the first time there were no US ships present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman, or even the northern Indian Ocean, and that US warships were "100 percent vulnerable" to IRGC attacks.
Kpler data shows crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and again from September 27-29, rising to 19.5-22.5 million bpd.
Around that time, Iran claimed success in attacks targeting vessels — including a US Navy ship — near the Strait of Hormuz, saying the strikes had forced Washington to move its warships farther from Iran's coast.
Before the US-Israeli war against Iran began, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026.
According to Kpler data, total crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days through September 30.
On October 1, the seven-day moving average of crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd. That figure includes transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
The volume of liquefied natural gas cargoes leaving the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to its highest monthly level since February.
The figures do not include any vessels that may have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off to avoid detection.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
On Sunday, Iran's top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, declared the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts Tehran's seven-day plan to reopen the shipping route.
