Zelenskyy loses initiative against Russia and the West
Leonid Ragozin
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, once hailed as a master communicator, now faces a grim reality with limited leverage on the battlefield and waning Western support for a painful peace deal. Despite initial territorial claims, Russian forces are encircling key cities, and Ukraine struggles with manpower shortages and contradictory casualty reports. The West now hints at territorial concessions for EU membership, while domestic frustration grows, leaving Zelenskyy with few options.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, renowned for his communication skills, now lacks the tools to shift the dynamic of his confrontation with Russia or to negotiate effectively with Western allies. Once called 'the greatest salesman on Earth' by U.S. President Donald Trump, the battlefield reality has sharply curtailed his options.
In February, Ukraine claimed to have gained more territory than Russia, but these gains largely stem from controlling vast buffer zones where boundaries are unclear. In fact, the advance has hovered around 150-200 square kilometers per month, reflecting no significant shift in a frontline that has remained relatively static for at least two years.
More worrying, Russian forces are encircling several industrial cities in northern Donetsk province. Advances along the northern border have extended the frontline by hundreds of kilometers, compounding Ukraine's severe manpower shortages. Ukraine’s army has resorted to forced mobilization campaigns, while Russia continues to attract volunteers with generous compensation.
Estimates of Russian casualties are contradictory. Zelenskyy stated that Russian losses in March reached an all-time high of 35,000, but Ukraine’s Defense Ministry claimed a record 48,000 in January 2025. Meanwhile, Kyrylo Budanov, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, acknowledged that a collapse of Russia’s mobilization effort is unlikely.
On the economic front, although Ukraine has succeeded in drone strikes against Russian oil facilities, Russia’s oil revenue in April still reached $9 billion—equivalent to 10% of the €90 billion loan the EU has earmarked for Ukraine over the next two years. Despite war-related strains, Russia’s GDP per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP) remains higher than some EU countries like Romania and Greece, while Ukraine’s lags behind, on par with Mongolia and Egypt.
Signals from the West are equally discouraging. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz suggested Ukraine may need to cede territory for a faster path to EU membership. Andrius Kubilius, chair of the EU’s Defense Committee, argued that NATO membership is impossible and that even EU accession is a complex process; he proposed a military alliance between Ukraine and European nations—an idea Moscow might reject as a disguised NATO.
As Budanov once stated, Kyiv's and Moscow's positions may converge in peace talks. But Zelenskyy needs to secure at least one advantage for Ukraine when a bitter peace treaty is signed. That advantage could be EU membership or real security guarantees, but recent statements suggest the chances of achieving these are slim.
Frustration among Ukrainians is mounting. The head of Ukraine’s parliamentary finance committee, Danylo Hetmantsev, warned that European officials should stop seeing Ukrainians as 'tools for solving someone else's geopolitical tasks' or 'human shields.' But with corruption investigations involving close associates, Zelenskyy appears to have few cards left to play against Russia or his Western allies.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.
