Zambia: Hichilema Sworn In for Second Term Amid Election Disputes and Arrests

Lusaka, Zambia – President Hakainde Hichilema has started his second and final term, pledging to ensure Zambians feel the benefits of an economic recovery he says has put the country on a more stable path.

However, Tuesday's inauguration took place amid a far more turbulent political landscape. Election observers raised concerns about the conduct and vote-counting process in the August 13 ballot, while opposition figures—including Hichilema's main rival—were arrested and charged with treason.

Hichilema secured about 60% of the vote according to official results, while challenger Brian Mundubile trailed with roughly 38%. Mundubile has rejected the outcome, alleging fraud.

The European Union election observation mission said voters were offered a competitive choice, but the election took place on an uneven playing field. The mission also noted that transparency in the results aggregation process significantly declined after counting was suspended.

These observations do not conclude that Hichilema lost, but they cast a shadow over the start of a second term for a president who came to power in 2021 pledging to strengthen democracy, the rule of law, and state institutions.

From Economic Recovery to Political Turmoil

Hichilema has significant economic achievements to tout. When he took office, Zambia was emerging from one of the worst economic crises in its recent history. The southern African nation defaulted on its sovereign bonds in 2020, becoming the first African country to do so during the COVID-19 pandemic.

His government has since overseen a major debt restructuring and worked with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on an economic reform program. These efforts have helped restore investor confidence and encouraged new investment, particularly in the mining sector.

That matters beyond Zambia's borders. The country is one of Africa's leading copper producers, and its mineral wealth makes it increasingly important to nations seeking supplies of copper and other critical minerals for the global energy transition.

But the improved economic picture has not necessarily translated into easier lives for many Zambians. High food and energy costs remain a source of frustration, while the removal of fuel subsidies has added pressure on household budgets.

Mundubile made the cost of living a central campaign theme, arguing that Hichilema's economic gains have not reached enough Zambians.

Hichilema acknowledged those grievances during the inauguration. “We know many families are struggling with the cost of living and the benefits of economic stability are not yet felt at every level,” he told thousands gathered for the ceremony in Lusaka. “Economic growth must mean something on the dinner tables of all citizens.”

Post-Election Developments

The vote was largely peaceful at polling stations, but tensions escalated during the count. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) suspended the aggregation and announcement of results on August 14 following violence at some tally centers and allegations of stolen election materials.

The EU mission later reported problems at many tally centers, including extended breaks and instances where officials appeared to wait for instructions before announcing results. The mission also noted a heavy military presence, which observers said had an intimidating effect.

Final results favored Hichilema, but Mundubile sought to challenge them in court. On August 24, Zambia's high courts closed and restricted access to their premises, just as the deadline for filing challenges to the presidential results approached. Human Rights Watch said the move effectively blocked access to courts for those wishing to contest the outcome, while officials cited security reasons.

The dispute then escalated dramatically. Mundubile and his running mate Makebi Zulu were placed under restriction and charged with treason. Authorities have not released details of the evidence behind the charges, which Mundubile denies. Before their detention, the two had taken refuge at a UN facility in Lusaka before turning themselves in to police. They remain in custody.

Deadly Clash

Political confrontation turned violent immediately after the election. On August 14, security forces raided a property in Lusaka linked to Mundubile. Former minister Mutotwe Kafwaya was shot dead during the operation, and 11 others were arrested.

Authorities said weapons were recovered and security forces acted in self-defense. Mundubile rejected that account, saying those at the property were not armed militiamen.

“We see this kind of thing in countries like Tanzania, Rwanda, but not here,” political scientist Neo Simutanyi told Al Jazeera. “Zambia has a distinguished record of democracy.”

Since ending one-party rule in 1991, Zambia has often been considered one of the region's most stable multiparty democracies, where power changes hands through elections. After years as an opposition leader and five failed presidential bids, Hichilema defeated then-President Edgar Lungu in an election praised for its peaceful transfer of power, seen as a landmark moment for Zambian democracy.

Economic Confidence vs. Political Concerns

Investors have so far largely shrugged off the political instability, with Zambian bonds holding steady after the election as markets focus on debt restructuring and economic continuity.

Both China and the United States congratulated Hichilema on his re-election and sent representatives to the inauguration, underscoring Zambia's importance as a major copper producer and potential source of critical minerals.

That creates a sharp contrast for Hichilema. International investors may see continuity in the administration and improved economic prospects, while opposition groups and observers increasingly focus on the treatment of political rivals and the strength of democratic institutions.

Mundubile's lawyer, Milner Katolo, told Al Jazeera there is “genuine hope” that with Hichilema now in his second term, a negotiated settlement could help “heal the nation” after a bitterly contested race. “We hope the African Union and SADC (Southern African Development Community) can step in, encouraging the state and our clients to sit down and find a way to resolve the dispute amicably through agreement,” Katolo said.

Whether such a deal is feasible remains unclear. “There is a small scratch on his image, on democracy and human rights, but most investors are happy with continuity, meaning their investments are safe. They don't care about human rights,” Simutanyi said.