Italy Votes on New Electoral Law: Controversial Seat Bonus for Winning Coalition

Italy's lower house held a secret ballot on October 4 on a new electoral law proposed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, under which a party or coalition winning more than 42% of seats in both chambers would receive bonus seats to guarantee a majority. The law has already passed the Senate and now awaits final approval in the lower house.

Meloni describes the reform as a path toward greater stability for Italy's political system, which has long been dogged by fragile coalition governments. Critics, however, argue the move is really aimed at boosting her own chances in next year's election.

The current electoral system

Italy's 600-seat parliament is elected under a mixed system known as the "Rosatellum," in force since 2017. About 36% of lawmakers are elected directly in constituencies on a first-past-the-post basis, with the remainder allocated proportionally. This mechanism encourages coalition-building but can produce fragmented outcomes, making it hard to form a governing majority.

What the new law changes

The new law would replace the mixed system with a fully proportional one, while awarding bonus seats to the party or coalition that wins the most seats if it reaches a minimum of 42% in both chambers. The bonus could reach up to 70 seats in the 400-member lower house and up to 35 seats in the 200-member elected Senate.

That means if a party or coalition clears the 42% threshold in both chambers, it would wield stronger governing power. If no party or coalition reaches the threshold, seats would be allocated on a purely proportional basis.

The new law would also require coalitions to name their prime ministerial candidate before the election. Rado Fonda, head of research at Italian polling firm SWG, told Reuters the rule "could make things difficult for the center-left, forcing it to hold a leadership race early and exposing divisions that could weaken the bloc."

Meloni — who leads Italy's longest-serving government since World War II — insists the reform will help stabilize the country rather than serve any political group. "Whoever wins the election will have enough seats to govern," she said.

Legislative process

The bill has passed the Senate and must now clear a final secret ballot in the lower house. Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Rome's Luiss Guido Carli University, predicted the law is "very likely" to pass. If it fails, Meloni has said she will resign.

Why it is controversial

The opposition argues the law is undemocratic because it could hand the winning coalition a disproportionate share of power in parliament. They also say the bill is designed to benefit Meloni, as her Brothers of Italy (FdI) party braces for a tough election battle next year.

Riccardo Magi, leader of the liberal More Europe party, who is on hunger strike in protest against the reform, called it an "undemocratic law" that risks giving a minority bloc a large parliamentary majority. Senator Matteo Renzi, leader of Italia Viva, accused the governing coalition of pushing the reform out of fear of losing power.

Other critics note the law would struggle to deliver stability if no party or coalition reaches the 42% threshold in both chambers — a fairly high bar. Vincenzo Emanuele, a political science professor at Rome's Luiss Guido Carli University and a member of the Italian Center for Electoral Studies (CISE), told Al Jazeera: "This could produce a hung parliament, making post-election negotiations necessary to form a government. Even relatively small changes in coalition composition could make the difference between a clear parliamentary majority and political deadlock."

The next election and the polls

Italy's next general election must be held by December 22, 2027, though the government could call an early vote if it chooses.

Meloni's FdI currently leads with 27% support, according to Politico's polling average. Coalition partners Lega and Forza Italia together hold 12%, putting the coalition's combined support at 39%. According to Reuters, FdI's support has been dented by the rise of a new far-right group, Futuro Nazionale (National Future), which Italian pollster SWG measures at 7.8%.

On the opposition side, Politico puts the Democratic Party (PD) at 21%, the Five Star Movement (M5S) at 12% and the Green-Left Alliance (AVS) at 6%. Italia Viva (IV) and More Europe each stand at 2%.

Emanuele said the current landscape suggests the proposed electoral law would not necessarily benefit Meloni and could even help the opposition. He said recent CISE simulations show a center-left coalition of the PD and M5S could win 44% of the vote, securing a "comfortable parliamentary majority," though that could change if Meloni allied with National Future.

"This reform is not inherently advantageous to the incumbent government: its impact will depend decisively on how the competing coalitions are formed," Emanuele said.