Conflict and Drought Push Sudan Toward Famine

Conflict and drought are raising the risk of famine across Sudan's Darfur and Kordofan regions, according to a warning from a global food crisis monitor.

In a statement issued on Monday, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) said the El Nino-driven drought, which has affected roughly half of Sudan's territory, is compounding the effects of conflict and displacement, cutting food supplies, driving up prices and undermining people's livelihoods.

"Health services are extremely limited and often completely inaccessible, while clean water is increasingly scarce, leaving an already malnourished population more vulnerable to disease and death," the IPC said.

The IPC is an initiative to improve food security, made up of 21 organizations and intergovernmental institutions, including the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the World Bank, the World Food Programme (WFP) and the World Health Organization (WHO).

'Food insecurity, acute malnutrition and excess mortality'

According to the IPC, farmers' livelihoods have deteriorated and dependence on food aid is growing. The body warned: "Food insecurity, acute malnutrition and excess mortality are likely to worsen further."

Poor vegetation growth has affected nearly two-thirds of cultivated land in North Darfur and about half the area in South Darfur, West Kordofan and South Kordofan, where severe water shortages and few opportunities to restore agricultural production are threatening people's livelihoods.

The IPC recorded worsening acute malnutrition in more areas, including Nyala, where the share of children able to access nutrition services but hospitalized for severe acute malnutrition doubled from about 5 percent to 11 percent between January and August. Two displacement camps in South Darfur also recorded global acute malnutrition rates above the famine threshold.

In North Darfur, late rains have affected planting, while food stocks have fallen "to extremely low levels," deepening food insecurity. Meanwhile, West Kordofan is experiencing one of its worst droughts since 2004 due to erratic rainfall.

Long-term consequences as conflict continues

In May, an IPC assessment found that nearly 19.5 million people, more than 40 percent of Sudan's population, were facing high levels of acute food insecurity. Of those, 135,000 were classified in Phase 5, the most severe category, characterized by extreme food shortages, starvation, very high malnutrition and death from disease or acute malnutrition.

The war in Sudan erupted in April 2023 when tensions between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) escalated into open fighting in the capital, Khartoum, before spreading across the country. According to the conflict monitor ACLED, the conflict has killed at least 150,000 people, though aid groups say the true toll may be higher. About 13 million people have been forced from their homes.

Sudan's army controls areas in the center and east of the country, while the western Darfur region and some southern areas are under RSF control.

Darfur, an arid region roughly the size of Spain, has seen some of the worst violence, with attacks on displacement camps and ethnic cleansing that has killed thousands of people in each wave.