World Cup 2026: Friday's fixtures, predictions and knockout race
Elizabeth Melimopoulos
The race for knockout places at the 2026 World Cup heats up on Friday as Groups G, H, and I play their final matches with many tickets still unclaimed. France battle Norway for top spot in Group I, Spain face Uruguay in Group H, and Egypt, Iran, Belgium, Cape Verde, and Saudi Arabia all fight to extend their tournament. Thirteen spots in the round of 32 remain undecided.
The race for knockout places at the 2026 World Cup heats up on Friday (June 26) as Groups G, H, and I play their final round of matches. Many tickets to the round of 32 are still unclaimed, including the battle for top spot in several groups.
France and Norway battle for top spot in Group I, Spain look to hold onto first place in Group H, while Egypt, Iran, Belgium, Cape Verde, and Saudi Arabia are all fighting to extend their tournament.
Friday's fixtures (June 26)
- Norway vs France at Boston Stadium (USA) 19:00 GMT
- Senegal vs Iraq at Toronto Stadium (Canada) 19:00 GMT
- Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia at Houston Stadium (USA) 00:00 GMT (June 27)
- Uruguay vs Spain at Guadalajara Stadium (Mexico) 00:00 GMT (June 27)
- Egypt vs Iran at Seattle Stadium (USA) 03:00 GMT (June 27)
- New Zealand vs Belgium at BC Place, Vancouver (Canada) 03:00 GMT (June 27)
Match predictions
Opta's supercomputer rates France as the heavy favorite against Norway with a 59.4% chance of victory. A draw is given 20.6%, which would be enough for France to top Group I. Norway have just a 20% chance of taking all three points.
In the Senegal vs Iraq match, Senegal are rated overwhelming favorites with a 77.2% chance of winning, versus just 8.6% for Iraq, with a draw at 14.2%. Senegal are no longer in contention for group victory but still have a 72.2% chance of reaching the round of 32, while Iraq stand at just 1.1%.
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia is a first-ever World Cup meeting. Opta's supercomputer gives Cape Verde a slim edge with a 40.8% chance of winning, versus 33.9% for Saudi Arabia and a draw probability of 25.3%. Cape Verde have a 66.7% chance of advancing, Saudi Arabia 33.3%.
Spain and Uruguay meet for the third time at a World Cup, with both previous encounters ending in draws: 2-2 in 1950 and 0-0 in 1990. Opta rates Spain as heavy favorites with a 62.4% chance of winning across 25,000 pre-match simulations, versus just 15.7% for Uruguay and a draw at 21.9%.
Egypt and Iran meet for the first time at a World Cup. Opta gives Egypt a slight edge with a 42.9% chance of winning, a draw at 32.2%, and Iran at 24.9%. Their last meeting was at the 2000 LG Cup in Tehran, ending 1-1 before Egypt won 8-7 on penalties.
New Zealand and Belgium have never met before. Belgium are rated overwhelming favorites with an 80.3% chance of winning, compared to 11.8% for a draw and just 7.9% for New Zealand. Belgium could become the first European side since themselves in 1998 to draw all three group matches.
Group standings
As of Friday (June 26), six groups have completed their matches, while Groups G through L are still deciding the remaining berths into the round of 32.
Key highlights:
- Perfect group winner: Mexico (9 points) are the only side with a perfect group record.
- Already qualified: Mexico, South Africa, Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Morocco, USA, Australia, Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, France, and Norway.
- Unresolved groups: Group G: Egypt lead with 4 points, Iran and Belgium on 2 each, New Zealand on 1. Group H: Spain on 4 points, Uruguay and Cape Verde on 2 each. Group I: France and Norway have already advanced but battle for top spot.
- Groups J, K, and L will conclude on Saturday.
- 13 spots in the round of 32 remain unclaimed.
