Why Are Pirates Returning Off Somalia's Coast?

Piracy is on the rise again off Somalia's coast, raising concerns about a possible repeat of the 2005-2012 crisis, even as current numbers remain far below the peak.

On August 29, Somalia's federal government announced that the Turkish navy, working with Somali forces, had rescued the cargo ship MV Lutuf after a 10-day chase, killing 14 pirates and destroying four small boats. The vessel had been seized on August 17 off Jifle in the northeastern Puntland region. Mogadishu's Defense Ministry attributed the success to a defense pact signed with Turkey in 2024. Puntland officials, however, disputed the account, saying the ship was released through a ransom payment rather than a military rescue. Both claims have yet to be independently verified.

How serious is the resurgence?

According to an AFP analysis of data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), there have been at least 15 attacks off Somalia and the Gulf of Aden so far this year, including eight in the Gulf of Aden since May. One oil tanker seized off Yemen was taken toward Somalia as the hijackers demanded a $10 million ransom. The MV Honour 25 has been held for more than two months. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) raised its piracy warning to "severe" in April and May.

Still, the situation remains far less severe than in the early 2010s, when the IMO recorded around 200 incidents per year. According to the World Bank, between 2005 and 2012, pirates carried out more than 1,000 attacks off Somalia, successfully hijacking 218 vessels and collecting an estimated $315–385 million in ransoms. In 2011, Somalia accounted for over half of global pirate attacks, with economic losses estimated at $6.6–6.9 billion.

The later decline in piracy was driven by international military campaigns such as NATO's Operation Ocean Shield, the EU's Operation Atalanta, the US-led CTF-151 task force, and protective measures for commercial ships. From 2013 to 2023, there were only a handful of successful hijackings. NATO ended its counter-piracy mission in 2016.

Why the resurgence now?

Analysts say no single factor explains the comeback. One key reason is that international naval forces have become stretched after the US and Israel began clashing with Iran in late February, pulling warships that once patrolled near Somalia in other directions. Abdurrahim Muhammad Ali of the Djibouti Maritime Authority told a regional security meeting in Nairobi that pirates are exploiting this distraction.

Domestic economic pressures have also intensified. Inflation in Somalia reached 9.2% in March, the highest in years, while aid from the US and the UK has been cut. According to the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), attacks often dip during the winter monsoon when seas are rough, then rise again as waters calm in spring.

The role of illegal fishing

Somalia has the longest coastline in mainland Africa, but its law enforcement is thin and it lacks an effective coast guard. The African Development Bank estimates the country loses about $300 million a year to illegal fishing fleets. Local fishermen have long been frustrated by foreign vessels depleting fish stocks—a factor that contributed to the first wave of piracy.

However, the motives have evolved. Andrew Mwangura, a maritime security consultant who helped negotiate hostage releases during the earlier crisis, said: "In the past, people went to sea because of illegal fishing and toxic dumping. Now it's mainly about capturing ships for ransom." The French navy's MIC center notes two distinct patterns: groups operating far offshore use dhows disguised as fishing boats as floating bases, while nearer-coast attacks target foreign fishing vessels accused of stealing seafood.

Who funds the pirates?

Modern piracy operations are far more organized than the image of desperate fishermen. One former pirate, speaking anonymously, said investors—often Yemeni and Somali businessmen—finance satellite equipment, GPS, weapons, and food for pirate crews. According to a joint study by Interpol, the United Nations, and the World Bank, financiers in the earlier crisis typically took 30–50% of the ransom, while those who actually boarded ships received a smaller share. Abdifatah Mohamed Abdinur, a Puntland official, confirmed links between pirates and transnational crime networks but said more information is needed to see the full picture.

Can it be stopped?

The security landscape has changed compared to a decade ago. Djibouti has become a hub of foreign military bases, with a dense chain of installations. The EU signed a new agreement with Djibouti in July to sustain Operation Atalanta. Saudi Arabia has set up a Red Sea naval task force that includes Somalia. Puntland signed a maritime security pact with the US military mission in early August. Officials from Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Yemen met in Nairobi under a UN program to boost intelligence sharing.

Yet military measures alone cannot address the root cause. Afyare Elmi, a lecturer at City University in Mogadishu, argues: "The sustainable solution onshore is what really matters when dealing with pirates on Somalia's coast." Poor socio-economic conditions and weak governance remain fertile ground for this scourge to regrow.