Why White House Envoys Struggle to Sway Israel's Prime Minister

On Monday, U.S. Middle East envoy Jared Kushner arrived in Israel and met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The main focus of the meeting was reportedly President Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan, which the Israeli leader rejected shortly after Hamas accepted it last week.

Although Kushner described the meeting as “productive,” he appeared to make little headway. In a Fox News interview, he downplayed Israel's rejection of the plan.

Analysts suggest that White House initiatives to revive the Gaza peace plan amid growing criticism are unlikely to succeed. Netanyahu will not concede to demands that Hamas disarm before Israel makes any commitments. He holds a similar stance regarding Lebanon, which negotiators view as obstructive.

The Israeli Prime Minister's ultimate goal is to delay future negotiations, especially any final agreements. By continuing conflicts with Iran, Palestine, Hezbollah, or Syria, he can cast himself as the “Guardian of Security”—the only one capable of confronting threats on multiple fronts. Maintaining this image ahead of October elections is particularly crucial.

Public opinion polls show 45% of Israelis oppose a peace deal for Gaza, 37% want to resume fighting in the territory, and 17% prefer the status quo. Two-thirds of Israelis want to continue occupying parts of southern Lebanon to create a “security belt,” and nearly half support major military action against Iran. Many pro-war voters are among Netanyahu's potential supporters.

For many Israelis, the Prime Minister's failure to achieve most of his plans to eliminate enemies seems of little importance. He is still seen as the only one with enough experience and toughness to face a supposedly hostile world.

Many believe the world is targeting Israel's destruction, and anyone who doesn't automatically “side with Israel” is an enemy. For his supporters, Netanyahu is the only politician who correctly identifies this situation and can separate and establish effective defense alliances for Israel. He is also praised for his understanding of American politics, showing the public that even the U.S. President cannot be fully trusted.

The possibility of Israel losing the U.S. as a key partner actually reinforces Netanyahu's image as the only one who can say “no” to America. Sabotaging any peace process also benefits him in his pending criminal case: he can request a trial postponement citing “important political meetings,” with his legal team citing work or health checks. War creates abnormality, and who but the Prime Minister can address these disruptions?

While continuing to push for war, Netanyahu seems unconcerned about the economy. Conflicts benefit businesses, especially defense companies. Israel's stock index is at record highs, the shekel has appreciated, and growth is projected at 5.6% by 2027. However, a June OECD report warned that a return to intense military operations would impose a “significant fiscal burden” on Israel, as businesses close and reservists are mobilized.

But warnings from the OECD are unlikely to persuade a Prime Minister who has staked his political survival on war. Neither are the special visits from White House envoys.