Ukraine Seizes 'First Chance to Win,' War Reaches Russian Soil

Kyiv, Ukraine – The Russian saying 'the Ural Mountains are safe' no longer holds true. In late April, a wave of Ukrainian drones struck Yekaterinburg, the capital of the Ural region, more than 1,800 kilometers from Ukraine's border. Since that first attack, Yekaterinburg's airport has been closed at least five times. Russians are now worried about declining food supplies, a plummeting economy, and severe gasoline shortages after months of Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and fuel depots.

Anatoly, a 45-year-old small business owner in Yekaterinburg, told Al Jazeera that prices are rising, stores are closing, people are lining up at gas stations and are not allowed to fill cans to prevent resale at inflated prices. Everyone anticipates disaster and 'everyone is trying to stock up on food.' Anatoly hid his identity due to his anti-war stance. 'My circle of friends has always been negative about the war. What flies in is annoying, but they deserved it,' he said.

'Russia Ready for Peace Talks': Putin

Russia's summer offensive aimed at capturing the Ukrainian-held part of Donbas and expanding further into northern and southern Ukraine has stalled. Instead, President Vladimir Putin wants to revive peace talks that had been halted due to attacks by the US and Israel on Iran. 'Russia is ready for peace talks with Ukraine based on the Istanbul agreements' drawn up in 2022, Putin said on Tuesday. Kyiv is likely to reject most Russian demands as unrealistic, and observers believe Putin is simply trying to buy time.

Nikolay Mitrokhin, a Moscow-born researcher at the University of Bremen in Germany, said this reflects Putin's desire to find a way out of a difficult situation. 'For the first time since the fall of 2022, Ukraine has a chance to win the war,' he said, referring to the Ukrainian army's bold operation despite having fewer troops to push Russian forces out of northern Ukraine. Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergey Markov listed Moscow's demands: Ukraine must 'demilitarize' with limits on heavy weapons and troop numbers, remain 'neutral' and never join NATO; Kyiv must 'stop suppressing the Russian language' and not develop nuclear weapons; Ukraine must withdraw from Donbas, while Crimea must be recognized as part of Russia 'in some judicial form.'

Another observer said Putin's decision to revive talks does not reflect popular discontent over the stalled offensive, high losses, and a weakening economy. 'The shift has been underway for a long time,' Sergey Biziykin, an exiled opposition activist from Ryazan, told Al Jazeera. 'Because both supporters and opponents of the war were sure victory would come quickly. Over time, even supporters realized that Putin wasn't working miracles, and everything in Russia returned to normal, to chaos and corruption.'

Russians Flee to the Countryside

Moscow residents fleeing drone attacks cannot find safety in rural areas. Arseny, an advertising editor from Moscow, moved to a house in the Yaroslav region, 280 kilometers southwest of the capital. 'Here it is much safer than in Moscow,' he told Al Jazeera, hiding his identity due to his anti-Putin stance. The air is much cleaner than in Moscow, where black, toxic 'oil rain' fell after two drone attacks on a major oil refinery in mid-June.

However, even there, Arseny hears Ukrainian drones and loud explosions from air defense systems. 'The day before yesterday, they were shot down 10 kilometers from us. The house jumped three times,' he said. Ukraine's 'drone sanctions' contribute to signs of 'structural exhaustion' in Russia's economy, according to a June 11 report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Sweden and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics. The report said 'the contours of a real economic endgame are emerging for Russia. The economy hasn't collapsed, but the structural foundations are eroding quickly.'

Many Ukrainians feel a sense of glee. Hannah Onopriyenko, a financial consultant whose Lukyanivka neighborhood in central Kyiv has been rocked and damaged by dozens of Russian drone attacks, told Al Jazeera that 'it's a wonderful word to describe my feelings.' The latest attack in late May killed three people and wounded dozens, burning down a shopping mall above a metro station. 'Still, I understand that what they're going through is only about 5% of what we've been through,' she said.