Ukraine reclaims more territory than it loses in May, driven by logistics campaign against Russia

Ukraine announced it had recaptured more territory than it lost in May, ending a streak of months in which Russia held the advantage in expanding its control. According to Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii on Telegram, “the ratio between liberated and lost territory tipped in our favor by about 100 square kilometers (40 square miles).”

Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi, citing military sources, estimated Kiev’s net advantage was even higher, at 120 square kilometers (46 square miles). According to its figures, Russia seized 130 square kilometers (50 square miles) but lost 250 square kilometers (100 square miles) during the month.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), using open-source geolocation data, calculated an even larger net gain for Ukraine. ISW assessed that Russia captured or infiltrated 40 square kilometers (15 square miles) in May but lost control of about 280 square kilometers (108 square miles). ISW believes Ukraine effectively reversed Russian advances as early as April, when it estimated Moscow gained only 28 square kilometers while losing 116 square kilometers. ISW’s assessments show Ukraine’s advantage is steadily increasing.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskii said Ukraine had recaptured a total of 600 square kilometers (230 square miles) in the first five months of 2026. However, Russia still achieved success on part of the front line. Ukrainian military expert Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on June 10 that Russian forces had entered the eastern part of the town of Konstiantynivka, at the southern tip of the “fortress belt” of four cities in eastern Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces began infiltrating this town last October and now control about 13% of its area.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has prioritized capturing the remaining one-fifth of Donetsk Oblast, but his self-imposed deadlines for achieving that goal have been repeatedly missed. Analysts believe Putin may be exploring the possibility of a ceasefire. On June 5, he rejected a direct dialogue call from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, though Zelenskyy said he had met with Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich, who serves as an intermediary for Putin.

Medium-range strikes cripple Russian logistics

Ukraine attributes its battlefield success to a strategy of disrupting Russian supply lines by striking ammunition and fuel depots both at storage sites and along transport routes. “Logistics blockade is working,” declared Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. “The number of attacks on enemy targets at a distance of more than 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the front line has doubled,” he said, comparing May with April.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskii said the total number of strikes in May reached nearly 2,000. The consequences of this strategy are already spreading. Weeks-long attacks in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts have reduced Russian military traffic on the M-14 highway—the main east-west artery—by more than 70%, according to Commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Robert Brovdi.

On June 7, local authorities banned all vehicles from the M-14. This forced Russian military planners to transport supplies via two other highways leading to Kherson and Zaporizhia through Crimea: the E105 and E97. The next day, Ukraine struck a bridge on the E105 route at the Chonhar Strait, leaving only the E97 as an access route. On June 9, when about 50 Russian trucks carrying fuel and ammunition diverted to the E97, Ukrainian forces ambushed and destroyed some vehicles near Armyansk.

Commander Dmitry Filatov told Suspilne that “This operation would not have been feasible if other units had not attacked Mariupol and the road to Berdyansk… This forced the units deployed near the Hulyaipil direction to start being supplied via Crimea instead of via the Mariupol highway.” As a result, civilians in Crimea have faced severe fuel shortages, which have worsened over the past week. On June 7, the occupation governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, imposed a ration of 20 liters per vehicle per day, later changed to 20 liters per vehicle per week.

The Atesh underground group operating in Crimea said Russian units are abandoning positions on the Kinburn Spit because they have run out of food and fuel. Mr. Brovdi declared, “We will create conditions that make it extremely difficult for military personnel and defense industry workers to stay in Crimea, the temporarily occupied territories, or use the routes leading to them.”

Although the Russian air force still controls the skies over eastern Ukraine and drops large bombs, Ukrainian data shows that drone superiority is a more effective tool. According to Mr. Syrskii, Ukrainian short- and medium-range drones hit 180,000 targets in May, a 12.7% increase from April. Ukrainian defense units also shot down Russian Shahed drones more effectively using interceptor drones. While Russia launched 25% more Shaheds in May than in April, the number shot down rose 50% to about 4,000. In addition, Ukraine continues its long-range campaign targeting Russian oil refineries, storage depots, and export terminals, reducing Russia’s oil production and export revenue.

Russian recruitment declines

Aware of the drone threat, Russia has established its own unmanned systems units but appears to face recruitment difficulties. Since the start of the year, 14,500 people have signed contracts to serve in these units, about 21% of the annual recruitment target. Mr. Syrskii said that overall, Ukraine has killed or wounded 12,500 more Russian soldiers than Moscow has been able to recruit this year.

Russian casualty numbers have risen since last autumn; Ukraine estimates about 31,500 casualties in May. Meanwhile, Moscow’s recruitment has declined despite increased signing bonuses. Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported that 71,200 people were paid to enlist in the first quarter of 2026, compared with nearly 90,000 in the first quarter of 2025. It estimates that enlistments in 2025 were already 10% lower than in 2024.