Ukraine Pushes Back Russia in Donetsk as Civilian and Military Casualties Soar

Russian forces continue to retreat in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, while Ukraine expands its counteroffensive and Moscow's strikes on Ukrainian cities inflict heavy civilian casualties.

According to the Kremlin-aligned Rybar Telegram channel on October 7, Russian forces are losing villages south of Lyman, a town Moscow once treated as a springboard for a large-scale campaign against the cities of the "fortress belt" of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Ukraine's counteroffensive this year, dubbed "Operation Vivaldi," has retaken 175 square kilometers (67 square miles) of territory that had been occupied around Lyman.

Rybar wrote that the enemy is successfully exploiting gains in the Lyman direction to develop attacks east of Sloviansk, where Russian troops are forced to defend previously captured positions and expend resources re-establishing control instead of mounting separate assaults. The channel also acknowledged that the prospect of capturing the Sloviansk urban area is receding further.

A key battle appears to be taking shape around the village of Kryva Luka, east of Sloviansk, where high ground on the right bank of the Siversky-Donets River is held by Russia and could serve as a springboard for further counterattacks to the east.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters that Operation Vivaldi has been successful but is not yet complete. Russian sources acknowledge that Ukraine has retaken settlements west of Kryva Luka, while criticizing Russia's communications strategy for claiming control of places it had not captured, exposing its attack plans. Rybar argued that premature claims allowed Ukraine to concentrate forces and counterattack.

Ukraine built up reserves in the Lyman area before launching its counteroffensive, and that preparation appears to be paying off. Ukraine's Defense Ministry said its campaign to disrupt Russian ammunition and fuel supplies to the front hit a large number of air defense systems and targets at ranges beyond 50 kilometers in September.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Russia seized 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in September, echoing claims by his generals. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which tracks territorial changes using open-source data and geolocation, says Russia in fact lost 80 square kilometers (30 square miles) that month.

According to the Ukrainian military, Russian casualties in September reached a record high for 2026 at 46,230, of whom 33,087 — more than 70% — were confirmed killed. The commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdi, said enemy casualties rose 40% in the first five days of October compared with the same period in September. On October 7, the Ukrainian military tallied 1,545,950 Russian troops killed and wounded since the full-scale conflict began in 2022.

Russia escalates air strikes, civilians pay the price

Putin's response has been to intensify bombing, bringing more grief to civilians. On October 7 — Putin's birthday — a Russian cruise missile destroyed a five-story apartment building in the city of Pryluky in the northern Chernihiv region, killing 22 people, including 5 children. Zelenskyy said the Russian military had "gifted" Putin the destruction of a residential building in Pryluky.

Ukraine's Air Force said Russia deployed 130 drones and 48 cruise missiles across 12 regions that day, along with ballistic weapons. At least 2 others were killed in Kyiv and 2 in Oleksandria.

On October 8, at least 30 people were killed in Kramatorsk when a Russian bomb struck two city buses. Video of emergency responders showed bodies scattered across a boulevard and in a park.

A recent analysis of the Geran-4 and Geran-5 jet-powered drones that Russia is increasingly using suggests strikes on non-military targets are unlikely to be accidental. Ukraine's military intelligence agency said the attacks use sophisticated satellite and inertial navigation, along with cameras that read terrain landmarks and cross-reference an onboard database — all three systems working together to ensure precise guidance.

Ukraine has countered jet-powered drones by accelerating the intake of F-16 fighter jets from allies, a force proving effective as a first line of defense. Zelenskyy said F-16s now destroy 50-60% of drone attacks. Ukraine is also testing five new types of interceptor drones, the most effective achieving 30%, and testing small-scale missiles. About 12 AI-controlled heavy machine-gun towers have been placed around Kyiv as a last line of defense, with dozens more expected to be deployed nationwide.

Serhiy Beskrestnov, a senior adviser at Ukraine's Defense Ministry, said this is a grassroots-level defense system that can protect warehouses, factories, bridges or power substations. Russia has begun targeting bridges over the Dnipro River, striking bridges south and north of Kyiv seven times in the first four days of October. Previously, Russia struck the building where Ukraine's cabinet meets and energy facilities supplying the city in an effort to cause blackouts.

Russian jet-powered drones exceed 500 km/h and are harder to intercept than propeller-driven Shahed drones. Still, during the October 7 attack, Ukraine's Air Force said it intercepted 80% of jet-powered drones, 95% of propeller drones and 80% of cruise missiles.

On October 7, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Kyiv to announce a 1.3 billion euro ($1.46 billion) military aid package and sign agreements worth 8.5 billion euros ($9.5 billion) to jointly develop drone defense systems and other weapons with Ukraine. Merz's visit was an important political move after recent elections in two German states where the Russia-friendly AfD won victories over the ruling CDU.

Ukraine strikes deep into Russian territory

Ukraine continues long-range strikes on Russia. The attacks targeted oil refineries in Volgograd on October 2 and Bashkortostan on October 8, as part of a strategy to cut fuel supplies to Russia's economy and military. Ukraine's military says more than 51% of the enemy's refining capacity has been disabled.

Ukraine also hit the Samara linear production and dispatch station, which Ukraine's General Staff described as a major hub for receiving, storing and blending oil. It said 11 tanks of 20,000 tons and 3 tanks of 50,000 tons were destroyed. The facility blends high- and low-sulfur oil from multiple fields to produce export-grade Urals crude, which accounts for up to 50% of Russia's total oil exports.

Ukraine also struck military targets. On October 7, it hit the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant, which extracts sulfur from gas to produce explosives. On October 4, it destroyed a Sukhoi Su-35 multirole fighter and a Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber at Adygea airfield, and struck Seshcha airfield in Bryansk. A medium-range strike campaign to destroy Russia's power supply in occupied regions reached 456 attacks between July 6 and October 3.